WSH beat TBL 4–3 in overtime. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 3.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Dmitry Orlov scored at 3:03 of overtime, moving WSH’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:50 | TBL | Brayden PointPP from Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 4:28 | TBL | Mikhail Sergachev from Nikita Kucherov, Kevin Shattenkirk | 2–0 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 5:17 | WSH | Evgeny KuznetsovPP from T.J. Oshie, Jakub Vrana | 2–1 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 18:48 | TBL | Alex Killorn from Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov | 3–1 | 72% → 89% |
| P3 3:45 | WSH | Jakub Vrana from T.J. Oshie | 3–2 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 11:36 | WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from Dmitry Orlov, Travis Boyd | 3–3 | 19% → 52% |
| OT 3:03 | WSH | Dmitry Orlov from Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point C | 22:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.19 | +0.38 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.03 |
| Alex Killorn L | 18:40 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.10 | +0.37 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 17:50 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.03 | +0.31 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 21:37 | 3 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.31 | +0.49 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 14:21 | +0.08 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 26:27 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.21 | −0.25 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 10:17 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Braydon Coburn D | 3:37 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 19:40 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:29 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 15:20 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 15:51 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 14:29 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 14:22 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Cedric Paquette C | 14:36 | −0.29 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 16:17 | −0.29 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 19:31 | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 20:14 | −0.55 | −0.51 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 62:57 | −0.71 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitry Orlov D | 22:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.06 | +0.44 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 20:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.15 | +0.31 | +0.23 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| T.J. Oshie R | 19:16 | 3 | +0.53 | +0.32 | −0.12 | +0.30 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jakub Vrana L | 20:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.35 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 20:57 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.26 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 10:34 | +0.10 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 10:43 | +0.07 | +0.21 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 19:18 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Leipsic L | 7:20 | +0.02 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 14:02 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 10:12 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 27:09 | −0.01 | +0.23 | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 17:21 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 21:05 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 10:48 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michal Kempny D | 20:06 | −0.18 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 20:30 | −0.22 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Richard Panik R | 7:09 | −0.57 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.35 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 62:59 | −0.35 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.