STL beat TBL 4–3. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Zachary Sanford scored at 8:21 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 48% to 78%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:53 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Brayden Point | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 5:31 | STL | Oskar SundqvistSH from Ivan Barbashev, Jay Bouwmeester | 1–1 | 27% → 46% |
| P2 8:40 | STL | Oskar Sundqvist from Ivan Barbashev, Tyler Bozak | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 11:39 | TBL | Anthony Cirelli from Ryan McDonagh, Nikita Kucherov | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 8:21 | STL | Zachary Sanford from Ivan Barbashev, Tyler Bozak | 3–2 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 11:07 | STL | Brayden SchennPP from Ryan O'Reilly, David Perron | 4–2 | 88% → 96% |
| P3 14:23 | TBL | Brayden PointPP from Nikita Kucherov, Kevin Shattenkirk | 4–3 | 2% → 14% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 8:37 | 2 | +1.28 | +0.01 | +1.30 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 17:04 | 3 | +0.29 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.37 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 18:37 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.09 | +0.28 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Zachary Sanford L | 15:26 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.43 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 20:49 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.05 | −0.06 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 15:34 | +0.02 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 21:25 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 15:13 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 13:41 | −0.03 | +0.13 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackenzie MacEachern L | 7:12 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 16:34 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob de la Rose L | 9:47 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 18:36 | 2 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.23 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 24:55 | −0.16 | −0.21 | −0.05 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 17:53 | −0.23 | +0.19 | −0.34 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Bouwmeester D | 26:01 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.37 | −0.04 | +0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Brouwer R | 9:25 | −0.36 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 16:03 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.13 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 59:57 | +0.36 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov R | 22:53 | 1 | 2 | +1.09 | +0.47 | +0.17 | +0.28 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Brayden Point C | 21:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.34 | +0.39 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 18:11 | +0.30 | +0.39 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 16:53 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 17:55 | +0.05 | +0.13 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 18:42 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 11:51 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 17:01 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braydon Coburn D | 10:52 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 23:39 | −0.03 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 10:36 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 19:59 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.14 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Tyler Johnson C | 18:06 | −0.13 | +0.13 | −0.18 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Cory Conacher C | 9:00 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 13:52 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cedric Paquette C | 14:38 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 17:07 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 15:14 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 57:46 | −0.69 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.