NJD beat MTL 4–3 in overtime. NJD also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kyle Palmieri scored on the power play at 1:30 of overtime, moving NJD’s win probability from 50% to 100%. Keith Kinkaid allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:41 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Jeff Petry, Tomas Tatar | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 19:41 | NJD | Nikita Gusev from Blake Coleman, Travis Zajac | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 7:43 | MTL | Cale Fleury from Phillip Danault | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 18:42 | MTL | Nick SuzukiPP from Max Domi, Shea Weber | 1–3 | 81% → 92% |
| P2 19:58 | NJD | Nico HischierSH from Pavel Zacha | 2–3 | 8% → 22% |
| P3 15:12 | NJD | Wayne SimmondsPP from Taylor Hall, Jack Hughes | 3–3 | 12% → 49% |
| OT 1:30 | NJD | Kyle PalmieriPP from Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier | 4–3 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hischier C | 20:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.07 | +0.59 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Taylor Hall L | 21:09 | 2 | +0.56 | +0.05 | −0.28 | +0.43 | −0.00 | +0.35 | +0.01 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 16:51 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.17 | −0.20 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.35 | −0.02 | |
| Nikita Gusev L | 15:02 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.11 | +0.21 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 17:47 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.03 | +0.36 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Andy Greene D | 21:12 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wayne Simmonds R | 11:32 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.31 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 8:46 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Travis Zajac C | 17:26 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mirco Mueller D | 14:11 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Tennyson D | 10:23 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 7:06 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 14:55 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 14:42 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 26:43 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 21:08 | −0.17 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 23:47 | −0.27 | +0.13 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 11:54 | −0.34 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 61:07 | −0.90 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Petry D | 24:29 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.23 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Cale Fleury D | 13:57 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.03 | +0.41 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 17:39 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.05 | +0.24 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 9:00 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 18:04 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.04 | +0.30 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 14:02 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Mete D | 19:11 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Weal C | 12:08 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 17:32 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Weber D | 24:13 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.08 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Thompson C | 12:58 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 20:28 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.23 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.05 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 8:45 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charles Hudon L | 7:55 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 15:39 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.08 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 18:30 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.25 | +0.00 | −0.35 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 24:30 | −0.25 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 13:49 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Keith Kinkaid G | 61:17 | −2.01 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.