TBL beat NJD 7–6 in overtime. TBL lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 4.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Tyler Johnson scored at 1:16 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Cory Schneider allowed 4.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:10 | NJD | Kyle PalmieriPP from Wayne Simmonds, Taylor Hall | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 9:28 | TBL | Ondrej Palat from Kevin Shattenkirk, Brayden Point | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 17:15 | TBL | Alex KillornSH from Kevin Shattenkirk, Tyler Johnson | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 6:05 | NJD | Jesper BrattSH from Pavel Zacha, Nico Hischier | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 11:48 | TBL | Brayden PointSH from Tyler Johnson, Mikhail Sergachev | 3–2 | 46% → 69% |
| P2 12:17 | NJD | Kyle Palmieri from Will Butcher, Taylor Hall | 3–3 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 13:16 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from Andy Greene, Nico Hischier | 3–4 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 1:13 | NJD | Sami Vatanen from Wayne Simmonds, Andy Greene | 3–5 | 78% → 92% |
| P3 2:45 | TBL | Anthony CirelliSH from Jan Rutta, Mathieu Joseph | 4–5 | 7% → 22% |
| P3 7:45 | TBL | Mathieu JosephPP from Anthony Cirelli | 5–5 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 16:03 | TBL | Ondrej Palat from Brayden Point | 6–5 | 49% → 89% |
| P3 19:52 | NJD | Kyle Palmieri from Wayne Simmonds, Will Butcher | 6–6 | 3% → 51% |
| OT 1:16 | TBL | Tyler Johnson from Ondrej Palat, Ryan McDonagh | 7–6 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ondrej Palat L | 17:19 | 2 | 1 | +1.58 | +0.07 | +1.49 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Johnson C | 14:17 | 1 | 2 | +0.75 | +0.02 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Alex Killorn L | 15:12 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.20 | +0.86 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 17:31 | 1 | 2 | +0.59 | −0.20 | +0.85 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 11:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.02 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 18:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.20 | +0.74 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 14:48 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Volkov R | 12:49 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 11:31 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cedric Paquette C | 15:24 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 25:27 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 21:06 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 17:39 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.08 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 10:30 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 15:21 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 18:48 | −0.31 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 18:49 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Braydon Coburn D | 18:10 | −0.36 | −0.25 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Curtis McElhinney G | 61:16 | −1.35 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Palmieri C | 20:38 | 3 | +1.66 | +0.05 | +1.60 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 15:35 | 2 | +1.33 | +0.08 | +1.23 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sami Vatanen D | 24:04 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.75 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Damon Severson D | 21:41 | +0.13 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Tennyson D | 13:08 | +0.12 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Zajac C | 15:01 | +0.11 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 14:32 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 24:00 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 9:24 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Andy Greene D | 18:32 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.24 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Hughes C | 20:19 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 15:14 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 21:21 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Kevin Rooney C | 9:53 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 18:05 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.21 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Miles Wood L | 8:50 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wayne Simmonds R | 18:13 | 3 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.38 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 15:08 | 2 | −0.73 | +0.16 | −0.75 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cory Schneider G | 59:39 | −4.68 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.