COL beat TBL 6–2. COL lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Tyson Jost scored at 3:17 of the second, moving COL’s win probability from 47% to 66%. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 4.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:09 | COL | Tyson Jost from Samuel Girard, Colin Wilson | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 17:35 |  TBL | Yanni Gourde from Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Shattenkirk | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 3:17 | COL | Tyson Jost from J.T. Compher, Colin Wilson | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 5:48 | COL | Gabriel Landeskog from Nathan MacKinnon, Ian Cole | 3–1 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 6:06 | COL | Tyson Jost from J.T. Compher, Colin Wilson | 4–1 | 83% → 94% |
| P3 6:30 | COL | Nazem Kadri from Cale Makar | 5–1 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 11:48 | TBL | Victor Hedman from Kevin Shattenkirk, Alex Killorn | 5–2 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 14:27 | COL | Mikko Rantanen unassisted | 6–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Jost C | 10:58 | 3 | +2.62 | −0.03 | +2.50 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 16:52 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.08 | +0.83 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 18:22 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.06 | +0.72 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 18:14 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.01 | +0.69 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 13:06 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ian Cole D | 19:39 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 20:01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 14:49 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Colin Wilson C | 9:48 | 3 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 12:44 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 22:36 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 15:44 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 20:36 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cale Makar D | 14:46 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 13:32 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 22:50 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Calvert L | 10:44 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 17:56 | −0.25 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pavel Francouz G | 60:00 | +1.55 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Hedman D | 22:59 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.09 | +0.74 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 13:36 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.09 | +0.52 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 17:54 | +0.13 | +0.08 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 18:23 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 20:08 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 18:46 | −0.00 | +0.09 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 18:17 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 21:14 | 2 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 18:03 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Maroon L | 11:13 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 13:54 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 8:51 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Braydon Coburn D | 16:06 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 15:19 | −0.23 | +0.08 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 14:35 | −0.28 | +0.05 | −0.38 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Witkowski D | 9:17 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 17:30 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 17:01 | −0.52 | −0.02 | −0.52 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 59:29 | −4.16 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.