DET beat BUF 5–4 in overtime. DET lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Tyler Bertuzzi scored at 2:18 of overtime, moving DET’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Linus Ullmark allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:02 | DET | Tyler BertuzziPP from Anthony Mantha, Niklas Kronwall | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 1:00 | DET | Filip Hronek from Anthony Mantha, Tyler Bertuzzi | 2–0 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 6:12 |  BUF | Kyle OkposoPP from Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Montour | 2–1 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 17:16 | BUF | Marco Scandella from Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 6:44 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Madison Bowey, Anthony Mantha | 3–2 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 13:04 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Filip Hronek | 4–2 | 84% → 97% |
| P3 15:01 | BUF | Casey Mittelstadt from Jeff Skinner, Jason Pominville | 4–3 | 2% → 13% |
| P3 15:42 | BUF | Jack Eichel from Victor Olofsson, Sam Reinhart | 4–4 | 12% → 51% |
| OT 2:18 | DET | Tyler Bertuzzi from Danny DeKeyser, Taro Hirose | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 16:58 | 2 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.15 | +0.66 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Larkin C | 22:59 | 2 | +0.93 | +0.05 | +0.61 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.12 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 17:39 | 3 | +0.46 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.46 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 22:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.17 | +0.43 | +0.21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Niklas Kronwall D | 18:32 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan McIlrath D | 16:12 | +0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danny DeKeyser D | 24:13 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.28 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Taro Hirose L | 16:24 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Helm C | 16:55 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Kuffner L | 13:17 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Ericsson D | 4:38 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Madison Bowey D | 22:29 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frans Nielsen C | 15:23 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 18:57 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Luke Witkowski D | 9:28 | −0.18 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Christoffer Ehn C | 10:50 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 22:03 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Puempel L | 11:40 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Howard G | 62:10 | −0.21 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 16:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.07 | +0.34 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Kyle Okposo R | 12:16 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.09 | +0.42 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 16:59 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.04 | +0.45 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 23:02 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.29 | +0.38 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.11 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 17:52 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.20 | −0.21 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Casey Nelson D | 16:39 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 29:14 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.17 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johan Larsson L | 12:47 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.06 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 15:51 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 16:25 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.24 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 21:40 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Will Borgen D | 14:32 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Pominville R | 15:01 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Vladimir Sobotka C | 10:11 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Lawrence Pilut D | 21:22 | −0.16 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Nylander L | 11:58 | −0.18 | +0.07 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 12:46 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 17:36 | −0.40 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 62:18 | −2.09 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.