NYR beat TOR 4–1. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 7.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jimmy Vesey scored at 14:05 of the first, moving NYR’s win probability from 52% to 71%. Alexandar Georgiev saved 6.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:28 | NYR | Mika Zibanejad from Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 10:35 |  TOR | Kasperi Kapanen unassisted | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 14:05 | NYR | Jimmy Vesey from Chris Kreider, Ryan Strome | 1–2 | 52% → 71% |
| P3 11:59 | NYR | Adam McQuaid from Mats Zuccarello | 1–3 | 85% → 97% |
| P3 19:40 | NYR | Kevin HayesEN unassisted | 1–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 16:21 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.05 | +0.41 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Andreas Johnsson L | 13:40 | +0.28 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 24:01 | +0.15 | +0.63 | −0.09 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 22:00 | +0.13 | +0.81 | −0.32 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 18:08 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 20:10 | +0.00 | +0.73 | −0.28 | −0.45 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 16:55 | −0.04 | +0.12 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ron Hainsey D | 17:23 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Par Lindholm C | 8:41 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 15:23 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederik Gauthier C | 9:26 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 11:09 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 15:19 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 16:19 | −0.22 | +0.10 | −0.34 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 23:05 | −0.30 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 19:39 | −0.38 | +0.73 | −0.75 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 13:45 | −0.50 | −0.03 | −0.38 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:06 | −0.55 | +0.73 | −1.27 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Garret Sparks G | 57:30 | −0.57 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mats Zuccarello C | 20:12 | 2 | +0.44 | +0.03 | −0.23 | +0.47 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Adam McQuaid D | 19:15 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.04 | +0.45 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 20:53 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.01 | +0.28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jimmy Vesey L | 17:43 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.33 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 17:48 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.04 | −0.06 | +0.29 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 15:43 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 20:52 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Chytil C | 12:26 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boo Nieves C | 5:35 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 11:19 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 13:55 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 15:32 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.04 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 11:36 | −0.33 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 15:31 | −0.36 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 14:56 | −0.68 | −0.68 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 16:13 | −0.74 | −0.70 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 21:28 | −0.75 | −0.74 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 21:03 | 1 | −0.92 | −0.63 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 60:00 | +6.49 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.