TBL beat PIT 5–4. Expected goals were close to even (PIT 2.4, TBL 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Tyler Johnson scored at 4:54 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 79%. Casey DeSmith allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:36 | PIT | Garrett Wilson from Teddy Blueger, Matt Cullen | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 15:02 |  TBL | Yanni Gourde from Brayden Point, Victor Hedman | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 15:59 | TBL | Erik Cernak from Cedric Paquette, Braydon Coburn | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 7:42 | TBL | Anthony CirelliSH from Alex Killorn, Ryan McDonagh | 1–3 | 72% → 87% |
| P2 8:31 | PIT | Jared McCann from Bryan Rust | 2–3 | 12% → 27% |
| P2 15:04 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Jake Guentzel | 3–3 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 4:54 | TBL | Tyler Johnson from Ondrej Palat, Steven Stamkos | 3–4 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 14:03 | TBL | J.T. Miller from Alex Killorn, Anthony Cirelli | 3–5 | 87% → 98% |
| P3 15:22 | PIT | Tanner Pearson from Sidney Crosby | 4–5 | 1% → 11% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson L | 7:42 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.05 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 16:16 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.07 | +0.67 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Tanner Pearson L | 14:28 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.12 | +0.75 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 20:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.08 | +0.27 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 22:57 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 6:55 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Cullen C | 7:18 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kris Letang D | 26:33 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Riikola D | 20:02 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 14:12 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 19:10 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 13:29 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 16:43 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 20:15 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Dominik Simon C | 16:28 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 17:05 | −0.29 | −0.17 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 22:37 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.16 | −0.43 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.04 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 14:51 | −0.44 | −0.07 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 58:25 | −2.27 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Cernak D | 21:31 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.05 | +0.86 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 11:05 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.05 | +0.81 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 11:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.05 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Tyler Johnson C | 16:45 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.12 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 19:55 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.04 | +0.69 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 22:32 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.20 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 18:48 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 10:29 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cedric Paquette C | 12:36 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Braydon Coburn D | 17:02 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 18:26 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Dan Girardi D | 18:23 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 17:42 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 19:49 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 22:50 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Erne L | 9:32 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 10:10 | 2 | −0.25 | +0.14 | −0.39 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 16:56 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.07 | −0.27 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | −1.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.