Tonight: 5 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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2019-01-29 · Madison Square Garden

1 – 0Final

PHI beat NYR 1–0. PHI lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Oskar Lindblom scored at 1:40 of the first, moving PHI’s win probability from 47% to 62%. Anthony Stolarz saved 5.6 goals above expected.

Shots on goal
19 – 38
Expected goals
1.9 – 4.0
xG share
NYR 68%
Home-ice start
NYR 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

PHI goalNYR goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

PHINYR

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

PHI
60:00 TOI
GSAx +5.56
+5.56
NYR
Alexandar Georgiev
58:01 TOI
GSAx +0.69
+0.69
PHI
Oskar Lindblom
1 G, 0 A · 13:49 TOI
On-ice +0.15 · Finishing +0.20
+0.31

Rough nights

PHI
0 G, 0 A · 19:29 TOI
On-ice −0.39 · Faceoffs +0.05
−0.40
NYR
Marc Staal
0 G, 0 A · 16:48 TOI
Finishing −0.16 · Playmaking −0.05 · Penalties −0.18
−0.37
PHI
Phil Varone
0 G, 0 A · 9:43 TOI
On-ice −0.21 · Finishing −0.09
−0.33

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalPHI–NYRWin prob.
P1 1:40 PHIOskar Lindblom
from Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek
1–047% → 62%

Every player

Show both lineups

PHI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Oskar Lindblom L13:491+0.31+0.15+0.20−0.04+0.00+0.00+0.00
Sean Couturier C20:201+0.05−0.07−0.08+0.16−0.00+0.00+0.04
Jakub Voracek R18:541−0.01+0.06−0.12+0.05−0.00+0.00+0.00
Nolan Patrick C16:19−0.03+0.04−0.00−0.12+0.02+0.00+0.03
Wayne Simmonds R15:23−0.03−0.06−0.09−0.07+0.02+0.18+0.00
Radko Gudas D19:19−0.07+0.03−0.04−0.06+0.00+0.00+0.00
Christian Folin D10:32−0.15−0.14+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Michael Raffl L8:01−0.22−0.17−0.00−0.04−0.01+0.00+0.00
Travis Konecny R15:59−0.22−0.16−0.00−0.04−0.01+0.00+0.00
Ivan Provorov D26:02−0.24−0.19+0.00−0.04−0.01+0.00+0.00
Travis Sanheim D24:40−0.26+0.02−0.04−0.05−0.01−0.18+0.00
Robert Hagg D15:43−0.26−0.18+0.00−0.08−0.00+0.00+0.00
James van Riemsdyk L14:49−0.27−0.18−0.07−0.02−0.00+0.00+0.00
Mikhail Vorobyev C7:24−0.27−0.19−0.00−0.03−0.02+0.00−0.03
Scott Laughton C19:12−0.29−0.13−0.12−0.04+0.00+0.00+0.00
Andrew MacDonald D20:22−0.29−0.26+0.00−0.03−0.01+0.00+0.00
Phil Varone C9:43−0.33−0.21−0.09−0.01−0.00+0.00−0.01
Claude Giroux R19:29−0.40−0.39−0.03−0.03−0.00+0.00+0.05
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Anthony Stolarz G60:00+5.56

NYR

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Mika Zibanejad C23:43+0.10+0.27−0.05−0.24+0.00+0.18−0.07
Neal Pionk D15:54+0.04+0.07−0.01−0.02−0.00+0.00+0.00
Brendan Smith D13:41+0.04+0.13−0.03−0.05−0.01+0.00+0.00
Cody McLeod L5:01+0.01+0.07−0.00−0.06+0.00+0.00+0.00
Brady Skjei D20:07−0.01+0.10−0.02−0.08−0.02+0.00+0.00
Adam McQuaid D16:13−0.01+0.03+0.00−0.05+0.01+0.00+0.00
Vladislav Namestnikov C24:14−0.07+0.36−0.20−0.23+0.01+0.00+0.00
Brett Howden C4:43−0.08+0.12−0.19−0.03+0.00+0.00+0.02
Kevin Shattenkirk D19:46−0.11+0.31−0.21−0.20−0.01+0.00+0.00
Jimmy Vesey L17:18−0.12+0.03−0.08−0.05−0.00+0.00−0.01
Boo Nieves C13:38−0.13+0.10−0.01−0.04+0.00−0.18−0.01
Jesper Fast R16:11−0.14+0.04−0.09−0.10+0.01+0.00+0.00
Filip Chytil C17:15−0.15−0.05−0.04−0.06−0.01+0.00+0.01
Tony DeAngelo D15:02−0.16+0.02−0.10−0.07−0.02+0.00+0.00
Kevin Hayes R22:25−0.19+0.44−0.38−0.24+0.00+0.00+0.00
Chris Kreider L21:34−0.22+0.26−0.52−0.15+0.01+0.18+0.00
Ryan Strome C14:26−0.24−0.15−0.04−0.02−0.01+0.00−0.02
Marc Staal D16:48−0.37+0.02−0.16−0.05−0.01−0.18+0.00
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Alexandar Georgiev G58:01+0.69

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.