TBL beat MTL 6–5. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Adam Erne scored at 18:58 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 50% to 96%. Antti Niemi allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:44 | MTL | Andrew ShawPP from Tomas Tatar, Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 10:00 | MTL | Kenny Agostino from Jordie Benn, Phillip Danault | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P1 14:12 |  TBL | Yanni Gourde from Adam Erne, Ryan McDonagh | 2–1 | 22% → 36% |
| P1 17:07 | TBL | Anton Stralman unassisted | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P1 17:35 | MTL | Jordie Benn from Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher | 3–2 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 7:55 | TBL | Nikita KucherovPP from Victor Hedman, Brayden Point | 3–3 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 8:33 | TBL | Tyler Johnson from Mikhail Sergachev, Nikita Kucherov | 3–4 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 12:19 | MTL | Brett Kulak from Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault | 4–4 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 13:11 | MTL | Andrew Shaw from Artturi Lehkonen, Shea Weber | 5–4 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 9:36 | TBL | Adam Erne from Anton Stralman, Victor Hedman | 5–5 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 18:58 | TBL | Adam Erne from Yanni Gourde, Anthony Cirelli | 5–6 | 50% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Shaw R | 17:19 | 2 | +1.07 | −0.04 | +1.30 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Jordie Benn D | 14:50 | 1 | 1 | +1.06 | +0.13 | +0.92 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brett Kulak D | 15:25 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.09 | +0.88 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kenny Agostino L | 9:06 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.10 | +0.77 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Mete D | 20:39 | −0.04 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 18:39 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 19:30 | 3 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Matthew Peca C | 7:53 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 18:24 | 2 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Chaput C | 9:45 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 16:30 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 17:30 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Shea Weber D | 25:41 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 16:47 | −0.29 | −0.25 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 13:51 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.03 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 16:28 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.13 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 17:48 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.07 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 20:45 | −0.71 | −0.20 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Niemi G | 59:07 | −3.28 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Erne L | 10:47 | 2 | 1 | +1.53 | +0.17 | +1.36 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Anton Stralman D | 20:30 | 1 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.17 | +0.85 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Yanni Gourde C | 16:52 | 1 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.22 | +0.74 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 21:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.01 | +0.80 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Johnson C | 19:32 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.09 | +0.54 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cedric Paquette C | 11:31 | +0.12 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.03 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 18:28 | +0.11 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 16:29 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 6:54 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 21:30 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 17:08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Callahan R | 9:17 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dan Girardi D | 17:40 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 18:12 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 20:32 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 12:25 | −0.12 | +0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 21:13 | 2 | −0.12 | +0.20 | −0.35 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 14:04 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.28 | −0.57 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | −2.13 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.