TBL beat DET 6–5 in a shootout. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Cedric Paquette scored short-handed at 14:58 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 11% to 48%. Jimmy Howard allowed 3.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:54 | DET | Gustav Nyquist from Dylan Larkin | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 17:15 | DET | Frans Nielsen from Andreas Athanasiou | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 5:10 | TBL | Mathieu Joseph from Ryan Callahan | 1–2 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 11:37 | TBL | Mathieu Joseph from Yanni Gourde | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 13:33 | DET | Frans Nielsen from Luke Witkowski | 2–3 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 14:27 | TBL | Steven Stamkos from Ryan Callahan | 3–3 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 16:26 | DET | Frans Nielsen from Andreas Athanasiou | 3–4 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 4:06 | DET | Gustav Nyquist from Dylan Larkin, Justin Abdelkader | 3–5 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 9:50 | TBL | J.T. Miller from Mikhail Sergachev | 4–5 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 14:58 | TBL | Cedric PaquetteSH from Mathieu Joseph | 5–5 | 11% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Joseph R | 12:15 | 2 | 1 | +1.59 | +0.13 | +1.47 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 |
| J.T. Miller C | 11:56 | 1 | +1.15 | +0.23 | +0.92 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Cedric Paquette C | 13:22 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.13 | +0.67 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 17:17 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.03 | +0.50 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.04 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 22:14 | +0.76 | +0.01 | −0.32 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.06 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 24:03 | +0.64 | +0.16 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.71 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 23:58 | +0.27 | +0.39 | −0.34 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 14:36 | +0.27 | +0.31 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 14:57 | +0.26 | +0.37 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braydon Coburn D | 16:53 | +0.17 | +0.24 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 21:55 | +0.17 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dan Girardi D | 18:54 | +0.16 | +0.23 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 13:51 | +0.09 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 15:21 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 18:33 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan Callahan R | 14:22 | 2 | −0.28 | +0.18 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 21:29 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.09 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 15:31 | −0.55 | −0.12 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Pasquale G | 65:00 | −3.06 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frans Nielsen C | 17:11 | 3 | +1.95 | −0.17 | +2.40 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.30 | |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 21:36 | 2 | +1.94 | −0.12 | +1.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.75 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 23:41 | +0.11 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jacob de la Rose L | 16:39 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danny DeKeyser D | 16:08 | −0.01 | +0.10 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Luke Witkowski D | 9:12 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Justin Abdelkader L | 20:52 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 16:31 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Christoffer Ehn C | 7:57 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Frk R | 7:52 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Ericsson D | 15:11 | −0.20 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 20:33 | 2 | −0.24 | −0.20 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 15:22 | −0.32 | −0.27 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Cholowski D | 15:41 | −0.33 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Niklas Kronwall D | 22:09 | −0.42 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mike Green D | 24:52 | −0.51 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 25:13 | 2 | −0.68 | −0.17 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.06 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Vanek L | 16:16 | −0.75 | −0.38 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.27 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Howard G | 65:00 | −3.39 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.