LAK beat STL 2–0. Expected goals were close to even (LAK 2.2, STL 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Matt Luff scored at 8:18 of the second, moving LAK’s win probability from 47% to 68%. Cal Petersen saved 3.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 8:18 | LAK | Matt Luff from Adrian Kempe, Carl Hagelin | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P3 19:30 | LAK | Anze KopitarEN from Dustin Brown, Drew Doughty | 2–0 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Kempe R | 12:43 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Matt Luff R | 14:09 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.02 | +0.39 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Hagelin L | 15:58 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.12 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 20:33 | +0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dion Phaneuf D | 10:45 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Wagner L | 6:27 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Fantenberg D | 15:34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Clifford L | 7:24 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 20:51 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ilya Kovalchuk L | 12:47 | −0.06 | +0.13 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 25:21 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:01 | −0.09 | +0.12 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Thompson C | 13:31 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Dustin Brown R | 20:31 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Carter C | 17:44 | −0.16 | +0.09 | −0.21 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 21:35 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 26:47 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 17:19 | −0.32 | −0.12 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Petersen G | 60:00 | +3.83 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colton Parayko D | 24:45 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Schmaltz D | 10:19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Bouwmeester D | 11:34 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 10:23 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Zachary Sanford L | 12:03 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 22:07 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 17:03 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.08 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 13:10 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 20:05 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.22 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Soshnikov R | 6:00 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 22:27 | −0.13 | +0.10 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 13:14 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 17:33 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| David Perron L | 18:26 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 24:42 | −0.28 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 18:35 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.13 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 21:44 | −0.33 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 17:21 | −0.43 | −0.10 | −0.23 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 58:29 | +0.85 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.