TBL beat BUF 7–5. TBL lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 2.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brayden Point scored at 7:02 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 81%. Chad Johnson allowed 3.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:30 |  TBL | Anthony Cirelli from Yanni Gourde | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 2:57 | BUF | Casey MittelstadtPP from Marco Scandella, Evan Rodrigues | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 4:35 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:32 | BUF | Alex Nylander from Brendan Guhle, Rasmus Ristolainen | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 9:40 | TBL | Yanni Gourde from Alex Killorn | 2–3 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 1:04 | TBL | Dan Girardi from Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat | 2–4 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 8:59 | BUF | Jason Pominville from Brendan Guhle, Evan Rodrigues | 3–4 | 12% → 27% |
| P2 15:58 | BUF | Jordan Nolan from Johan Larsson | 4–4 | 24% → 47% |
| P2 18:45 | BUF | Kyle OkposoPP from Jack Eichel, Ryan O'Reilly | 5–4 | 48% → 72% |
| P3 6:15 | TBL | Anthony Cirelli from Alex Killorn, Mikhail Sergachev | 5–5 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 7:02 | TBL | Brayden Point from Alex Killorn, Yanni Gourde | 5–6 | 52% → 81% |
| P3 18:34 | TBL | Victor HedmanEN from Andrei Vasilevskiy | 5–7 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Pominville R | 15:10 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.00 | +0.84 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Nylander L | 10:29 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.02 | +0.83 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 13:32 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.03 | +0.69 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 18:40 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.14 | +0.77 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jordan Nolan C | 8:58 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.06 | +0.53 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 14:17 | 2 | +0.30 | +0.12 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.36 | −0.01 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 26:52 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Falk D | 14:26 | +0.10 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Baptiste R | 11:21 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johan Larsson L | 15:43 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 11:01 | +0.02 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Guhle D | 19:15 | 2 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Nelson D | 19:30 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:36 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Scott Wilson C | 17:27 | −0.26 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 17:43 | −0.28 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 20:27 | 1 | −0.63 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.54 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 21:39 | 1 | −0.64 | −0.05 | −0.60 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson G | 57:54 | −3.53 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Cirelli C | 13:33 | 2 | +1.62 | +0.11 | +1.44 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 13:26 | 1 | 2 | +1.07 | +0.04 | +0.66 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 16:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.11 | +0.76 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Dan Girardi D | 19:54 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.05 | +0.76 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 18:17 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.06 | +0.76 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 22:25 | +0.11 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braydon Coburn D | 11:16 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kunitz L | 10:27 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Stralman D | 21:49 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Callahan R | 12:31 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cedric Paquette C | 12:20 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 12:39 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Johnson C | 17:25 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 26:11 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 15:40 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.13 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 18:08 | −0.32 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 16:47 | 3 | −0.42 | +0.07 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Cory Conacher C | 12:37 | −0.52 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 59:27 | −2.56 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.