TBL beat PHI 7–6 in a shootout. TBL lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Claude Giroux scored at 17:07 of the third, moving PHI’s win probability from 8% to 49%. Petr Mrazek allowed 4.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:08 | PHI | Nolan PatrickPP from Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 8:16 | TBL | Steven StamkosPP from Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 14:30 | PHI | Jakub Voracek from Nolan Patrick | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 18:07 | PHI | Robert Hagg from Scott Laughton, Ivan Provorov | 3–1 | 66% → 79% |
| P2 5:57 | TBL | Victor Hedman from Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov | 3–2 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 12:47 | TBL | Dan Girardi from Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman | 3–3 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 16:15 | PHI | Jori Lehtera from Jordan Weal, Valtteri Filppula | 4–3 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 1:06 | PHI | Ivan Provorov from Valtteri Filppula | 5–3 | 73% → 90% |
| P3 4:23 | TBL | J.T. Miller from Yanni Gourde, Brayden Point | 5–4 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 7:38 | TBL | Steven Stamkos from Nikita Kucherov, Alex Killorn | 5–5 | 21% → 52% |
| P3 10:03 | TBL | Victor Hedman from Steven Stamkos | 5–6 | 52% → 83% |
| P3 17:07 | PHI | Claude Giroux from Sean Couturier, Ivan Provorov | 6–6 | 8% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Provorov D | 24:20 | 1 | 2 | +0.93 | +0.02 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jori Lehtera C | 9:14 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.01 | +0.88 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 25:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.04 | +0.71 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 |
| Robert Hagg D | 18:33 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.07 | +0.84 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakub Voracek R | 22:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.08 | +0.41 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 |
| Radko Gudas D | 16:14 | +0.23 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Leier L | 10:09 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nolan Patrick C | 22:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | +0.37 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.36 |
| Brandon Manning D | 15:18 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 9:42 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Raffl L | 11:01 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jordan Weal C | 9:17 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Valtteri Filppula C | 14:20 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Lindblom L | 15:37 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew MacDonald D | 18:19 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 17:13 | −0.38 | −0.08 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 26:46 | −0.39 | +0.08 | −0.49 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 28:05 | 1 | −0.70 | −0.23 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.31 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 65:00 | −4.45 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Hedman D | 28:11 | 2 | 2 | +1.88 | +0.27 | +1.58 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:06 | 2 | 3 | +1.67 | +0.16 | +1.18 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.32 |
| Dan Girardi D | 21:41 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.09 | +0.91 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 19:39 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.01 | +0.66 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 19:36 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.06 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.82 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 15:45 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 16:35 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Braydon Coburn D | 20:05 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 20:08 | 3 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.10 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kunitz L | 11:11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Andrej Sustr D | 17:13 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Callahan R | 13:59 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 9:24 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 9:40 | −0.22 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 13:11 | −0.23 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Stralman D | 25:15 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 14:25 | −0.40 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cory Conacher C | 11:17 | −0.46 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.31 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 65:00 | −1.88 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.