VGK beat TBL 4–3. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Shea Theodore scored on the power play at 19:57 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 53% to 98%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:43 | TBL | Steven StamkosPP from Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 19:13 | TBL | Vladislav NamestnikovPP from Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman | 2–0 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 10:07 | VGK | James NealPP from David Perron, Shea Theodore | 2–1 | 16% → 32% |
| P2 18:21 | VGK | Jonathan MarchessaultPP from David Perron, Shea Theodore | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 4:42 | VGK | Erik HaulaPP from Shea Theodore, David Perron | 2–3 | 53% → 79% |
| P3 16:08 | TBL | Victor Hedman from Steven Stamkos | 3–3 | 10% → 49% |
| P3 19:57 | VGK | Shea TheodorePP from Jonathan Marchessault, Erik Haula | 3–4 | 53% → 98% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Hedman D | 27:44 | 1 | 2 | +0.68 | −0.16 | +0.43 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Steven Stamkos C | 21:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.04 | +0.33 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 20:21 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.02 | +0.26 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 23:31 | 2 | +0.13 | −0.06 | −0.17 | +0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 15:49 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Sustr D | 10:05 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JT Brown R | 9:10 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Cedric Paquette C | 10:59 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anton Stralman D | 19:19 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 20:56 | −0.17 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Slater Koekkoek D | 8:50 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kunitz L | 8:22 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Cory Conacher C | 12:13 | −0.28 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 17:57 | −0.31 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 14:11 | −0.32 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dan Girardi D | 17:06 | −0.46 | −0.42 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 21:33 | −0.50 | −0.45 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Braydon Coburn D | 16:50 | −0.61 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | −0.71 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Theodore D | 20:39 | 1 | 3 | +0.92 | +0.11 | +0.44 | +0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 16:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.23 | +0.32 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| James Neal L | 19:44 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.12 | +0.31 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| David Perron L | 19:03 | 3 | +0.61 | +0.14 | −0.03 | +0.51 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 18:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.12 | +0.30 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tomas Nosek L | 11:00 | +0.25 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 13:58 | +0.22 | +0.33 | −0.00 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 14:40 | +0.15 | +0.31 | −0.03 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 19:23 | +0.12 | +0.33 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Leipsic L | 10:44 | +0.09 | +0.27 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 13:13 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 13:51 | −0.02 | +0.25 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 22:20 | −0.11 | +0.08 | −0.15 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 14:47 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:07 | −0.14 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 16:54 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.16 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Deryk Engelland D | 19:32 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Lindberg L | 9:53 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 60:00 | −0.76 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.