TBL beat WPG 4–3 in overtime. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 1.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brayden Point scored at 0:36 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Connor Hellebuyck allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:23 | WPG | Andrew Copp from Adam Lowry, Brandon Tanev | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 18:57 |  TBL | Yanni GourdePP from Brayden Point, Tyler Johnson | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 16:39 | TBL | Mikhail Sergachev from Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 18:02 | WPG | Kyle Connor from Josh Morrissey, Blake Wheeler | 2–2 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 7:02 | WPG | Nikolaj Ehlers from Jacob Trouba, Patrik Laine | 3–2 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 8:51 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Jake Dotchin, Steven Stamkos | 3–3 | 21% → 52% |
| OT 0:36 | TBL | Brayden Point from Anton Stralman | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor L | 17:50 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.02 | +0.48 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Copp C | 14:25 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.04 | +0.33 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 21:55 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 21:33 | +0.24 | +0.04 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.07 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 21:24 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 14:20 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 13:22 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 25:06 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 15:20 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.15 | +0.34 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Perreault C | 7:53 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Hendricks C | 7:53 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 9:09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 23:19 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dustin Byfuglien D | 16:54 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 20:10 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Patrik Laine L | 17:09 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 9:47 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Little C | 16:32 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:34 | −1.89 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point C | 17:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.02 | +0.41 | +0.21 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.03 |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 19:23 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.00 | +0.41 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Stralman D | 20:00 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.34 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 14:11 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.03 | +0.30 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 20:52 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.05 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 19:28 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.04 | −0.07 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 20:55 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Johnson C | 17:49 | 2 | +0.15 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 27:30 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Cedric Paquette C | 10:18 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Dan Girardi D | 18:25 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cory Conacher C | 9:15 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Slater Koekkoek D | 11:36 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kunitz L | 10:44 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Callahan R | 10:30 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Dotchin D | 18:05 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 13:04 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 18:10 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:36 | −1.63 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.