TBL beat CBJ 2–0. TBL lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mikhail Sergachev scored at 17:48 of the first, moving TBL’s win probability from 47% to 65%. Andrei Vasilevskiy saved 3.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:48 |  TBL | Mikhail Sergachev from Vladislav Namestnikov, Steven Stamkos | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 15:37 | TBL | Mikhail Sergachev from Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos | 2–0 | 70% → 87% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 12:49 | 2 | +1.69 | +0.03 | +1.65 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Stralman D | 20:40 | +0.08 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 16:59 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 18:04 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dan Girardi D | 16:46 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 15:57 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 18:33 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Dotchin D | 12:35 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Dumont C | 12:06 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrej Sustr D | 9:57 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Callahan R | 13:40 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 17:48 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Chris Kunitz L | 12:44 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 23:17 | −0.14 | +0.08 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Braydon Coburn D | 20:00 | −0.14 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 18:18 | −0.17 | +0.09 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 16:21 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 17:26 | 2 | −0.36 | −0.15 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | +3.49 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Jones D | 23:55 | +0.21 | +0.11 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 25:02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Dubinsky C | 13:59 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 18:25 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 9:19 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Markus Nutivaara D | 12:17 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Murray D | 15:46 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zac Dalpe C | 11:35 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 10:28 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 12:27 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 12:58 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| David Savard D | 18:57 | −0.21 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 24:30 | −0.24 | +0.06 | −0.43 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Sedlak C | 8:54 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Matt Calvert L | 14:22 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 18:52 | −0.33 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 22:50 | −0.36 | +0.08 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 22:53 | −0.55 | +0.04 | −0.77 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 58:31 | −0.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.