CBJ beat CAR 2–1 in overtime. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Sonny Milano scored at 4:29 of overtime, moving CBJ’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Sergei Bobrovsky saved 5.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 10:01 | CBJ | Sonny Milano from Oliver Bjorkstrand, Nick Foligno | 1–0 | 48% → 80% |
| P3 18:35 | CAR | Jeff SkinnerPP unassisted | 1–1 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 4:29 | CBJ | Sonny Milano unassisted | 2–1 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Milano L | 13:48 | 2 | +0.75 | +0.06 | +0.72 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 13:18 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 21:49 | +0.18 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 21:36 | +0.16 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 18:39 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Gabriel Carlsson D | 12:50 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Murray D | 16:26 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Markus Hannikainen L | 10:07 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 11:37 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Lukas Sedlak C | 12:09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 13:39 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 19:44 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 25:46 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 22:04 | −0.16 | −0.23 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Dubinsky C | 19:33 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 18:56 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.07 | |
| Cam Atkinson R | 20:49 | −0.51 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Matt Calvert L | 16:56 | −0.54 | −0.30 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 64:19 | +5.81 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Skinner L | 17:23 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.21 | +0.57 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 27:13 | +0.15 | +0.47 | −0.05 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 17:30 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Janne Kuokkanen C | 12:02 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:25 | −0.03 | +0.21 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 16:44 | −0.08 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 23:51 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 19:41 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Williams R | 17:14 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 21:55 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 20:02 | −0.12 | +0.15 | −0.12 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 14:04 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Kruger C | 10:17 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 16:26 | −0.16 | +0.09 | −0.17 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 11:40 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 11:05 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 18:40 | −0.29 | +0.05 | −0.33 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Klas Dahlbeck D | 13:18 | −0.30 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Darling G | 63:35 | −1.83 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.