TBL beat CHI 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (CHI 2.3, TBL 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Yanni Gourde scored at 4:25 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Scott Darling allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:23 | CHI | Artemi Panarin from Tanner Kero | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 9:29 | TBL | Ondrej PalatPP from Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 10:17 | CHI | Patrick Kane from Niklas Hjalmarsson, Duncan Keith | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 13:41 | CHI | Tomas Jurco from Nick Schmaltz | 3–1 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 8:47 | CHI | Richard Panik from Trevor van Riemsdyk, Nick Schmaltz | 4–1 | 84% → 95% |
| P2 11:45 | TBL | Jonathan Drouin from Alex Killorn, Anton Stralman | 4–2 | 4% → 15% |
| P2 12:47 | TBL | Anton Stralman from Greg McKegg, Ondrej Palat | 4–3 | 14% → 31% |
| P2 16:24 | TBL | Jonathan DrouinPP from Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov | 4–4 | 30% → 53% |
| OT 4:25 | TBL | Yanni Gourde from Victor Hedman | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Jurco R | 11:54 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.01 | +0.56 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Richard Panik R | 17:27 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.03 | +0.47 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 24:10 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.22 | +0.65 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 20:33 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.13 | +0.38 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Oduya D | 18:02 | +0.10 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordin Tootoo R | 6:17 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 9:21 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Campbell D | 15:01 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Desjardins L | 11:03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 14:39 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 15:38 | 2 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.21 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Kero C | 15:09 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Duncan Keith D | 29:17 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marian Hossa R | 17:45 | −0.16 | −0.30 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.01 | ||
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 25:39 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Kruger C | 16:55 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Seabrook D | 20:20 | −0.34 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 20:57 | −0.55 | +0.03 | −0.42 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Darling G | 64:25 | −2.87 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Drouin L | 18:01 | 2 | +1.76 | +0.14 | +1.60 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Anton Stralman D | 25:56 | 1 | 1 | +1.13 | +0.13 | +0.83 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 |
| Yanni Gourde C | 16:30 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.18 | +0.81 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 21:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.14 | +0.62 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Victor Hedman D | 29:20 | 3 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Dumont C | 11:41 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Joel Vermin R | 11:15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Sustr D | 13:50 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Greg McKegg C | 10:20 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| JT Brown R | 11:34 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 20:08 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 16:06 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Braydon Coburn D | 20:47 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Dotchin D | 20:40 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 11:19 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 16:17 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Luke Witkowski D | 11:56 | −0.27 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 20:08 | 2 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.30 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Peter Budaj G | 6:19 | +0.36 |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 58:06 | −1.65 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.