LAK beat WSH 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (WSH 2.1, LAK 2.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Adrian Kempe scored at 8:46 of the third, moving LAK’s win probability from 52% to 82%. Philipp Grubauer allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:35 | WSH | Jakub VranaPP from Kevin Shattenkirk, Justin Williams | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 15:30 | LAK | Marian Gaborik from Anze Kopitar, Alec Martinez | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 0:47 | WSH | T.J. Oshie from Marcus Johansson | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 7:20 | LAK | Anze KopitarPP from Jeff Carter, Jake Muzzin | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 8:46 | LAK | Adrian Kempe from Kevin Gravel, Alec Martinez | 2–3 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 19:58 | LAK | Jeff CarterEN from Tyler Toffoli, Tanner Pearson | 2–4 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Vrana L | 8:03 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.02 | +0.36 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| T.J. Oshie R | 17:46 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.17 | +0.33 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Williams R | 12:55 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.05 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | |
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 17:04 | +0.22 | +0.19 | −0.21 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.03 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 17:15 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Connolly R | 9:37 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Karl Alzner D | 20:10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 16:35 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 18:48 | +0.00 | +0.12 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 21:56 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 17:16 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Niskanen D | 20:44 | −0.06 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brooks Orpik D | 17:20 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 14:50 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Winnik L | 11:41 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 19:23 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.52 | +0.00 | |
| Jay Beagle C | 12:27 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.02 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 17:29 | −0.30 | +0.11 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 58:39 | −1.54 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gravel D | 11:35 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.35 | +0.00 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 21:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.11 | +0.24 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Dustin Brown R | 14:47 | +0.28 | +0.08 | −0.07 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 13:01 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.02 | +0.42 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 | |
| Marian Gaborik R | 18:54 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.03 | +0.30 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Carter C | 17:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Trevor Lewis C | 14:47 | +0.10 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 22:19 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 19:41 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andy Andreoff C | 8:13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Clifford L | 8:03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 21:27 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 15:55 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 11:42 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Doughty D | 25:20 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul LaDue D | 19:38 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 11:28 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.03 | ||
| Jarome Iginla R | 18:34 | −0.34 | −0.09 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 60:00 | +0.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.