OTT beat ARI 3–2 in overtime. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Erik Karlsson scored at 0:40 of overtime, moving OTT’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Mike Smith allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 11:30 | ARI | Brendan Perlini from Tobias Rieder, Jordan Martinook | 0–1 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 12:11 | OTT | Jean-Gabriel Pageau from Fredrik Claesson, Erik Karlsson | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 17:49 | ARI | Lawson Crouse from Josh Jooris | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 12:47 | OTT | Erik Karlsson from Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 2–2 | 14% → 49% |
| OT 0:40 | OTT | Erik Karlsson unassisted | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 15:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.22 | +0.22 | +0.37 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Erik Karlsson D | 29:28 | 2 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.08 | +0.63 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Fredrik Claesson D | 10:34 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Pyatt L | 14:43 | +0.17 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.14 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 15:43 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 17:23 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Viktor Stalberg L | 15:42 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Methot D | 18:36 | −0.08 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Burrows R | 12:54 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dion Phaneuf D | 25:55 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Smith C | 18:28 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Dzingel C | 13:57 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kelly C | 12:56 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Wingels C | 12:53 | −0.21 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Chris Wideman D | 11:29 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christopher DiDomenico L | 6:55 | −0.23 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 17:25 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 23:34 | −0.24 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Condon G | 60:40 | +1.57 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Perlini L | 13:51 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.11 | +0.38 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 15:09 | +0.15 | +0.15 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Jooris R | 13:39 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Shane Doan R | 15:15 | +0.13 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 14:54 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.08 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 13:07 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.06 | +0.19 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tobias Rieder L | 19:17 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.16 | −0.23 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Peter Holland C | 9:12 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 14:00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 20:22 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 7:42 | −0.05 | +0.13 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 20:20 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 27:00 | −0.10 | +0.12 | −0.09 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 24:08 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie McGinn L | 10:31 | −0.22 | +0.10 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 18:32 | −0.35 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 19:24 | −0.41 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Radim Vrbata R | 19:40 | −0.42 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Smith G | 60:37 | −2.76 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.