NYR beat TBL 1–0 in overtime. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mika Zibanejad scored at 3:56 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Antti Raanta saved 3.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OT 3:56 | NYR | Mika Zibanejad from Ryan McDonagh | 1–0 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mika Zibanejad C | 18:37 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.06 | +0.73 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Steven Kampfer D | 8:40 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 25:59 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 20:39 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 17:02 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 18:48 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Oscar Lindberg L | 7:05 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 24:13 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Glass L | 5:17 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 13:04 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 17:58 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 18:04 | −0.17 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 20:44 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 13:11 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 16:33 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Pirri C | 8:30 | −0.47 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.35 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 26:28 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.19 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Rick Nash L | 17:23 | −0.92 | −0.04 | −0.70 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 63:56 | +3.50 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yanni Gourde C | 10:09 | +0.27 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.01 | ||
| Andrej Sustr D | 16:40 | +0.07 | +0.14 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Witkowski D | 7:54 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 13:31 | +0.04 | +0.16 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Cedric Paquette C | 11:06 | +0.03 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Braydon Coburn D | 15:35 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 22:01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.49 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.18 | ||
| Jake Dotchin D | 20:25 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Stralman D | 23:19 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Dumont C | 7:15 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 22:21 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 22:40 | −0.15 | +0.19 | −0.58 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 17:59 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jason Garrison D | 17:45 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 20:41 | −0.21 | +0.06 | −0.36 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 20:54 | −0.35 | −0.07 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 19:50 | −0.44 | −0.10 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 11:32 | −0.69 | +0.15 | −0.83 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 63:56 | +1.56 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.