VAN beat TBL 5–1. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jack Skille scored at 3:50 of the first, moving VAN’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Ryan Miller saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:50 | VAN | Jack Skille from Erik Gudbranson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:03 | VAN | Erik Gudbranson unassisted | 2–0 | 63% → 77% |
| P2 6:01 | VAN | Jayson Megna from Alex Biega, Nikita Tryamkin | 3–0 | 83% → 94% |
| P2 11:46 | TBL | Jonathan Drouin from Valtteri Filppula, Luke Witkowski | 3–1 | 4% → 15% |
| P2 19:59 | VAN | Jayson Megna from Daniel Sedin, Markus Granlund | 4–1 | 89% → 98% |
| P3 13:58 | VAN | Jack Skille from Brendan Gaunce | 5–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Skille R | 7:19 | 2 | +1.65 | −0.02 | +1.68 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jayson Megna C | 13:56 | 2 | +1.41 | −0.05 | +1.45 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 22:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.17 | +0.91 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Troy Stecher D | 20:11 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Markus Granlund C | 17:10 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Henrik Sedin C | 19:58 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Nikita Tryamkin D | 17:32 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Biega D | 14:43 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Loui Eriksson L | 18:35 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Chaput C | 7:17 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Luca Sbisa D | 18:22 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Burrows R | 16:46 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 7:43 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Daniel Sedin L | 19:15 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.22 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Sutter C | 19:41 | −0.25 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sven Baertschi L | 14:49 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 21:34 | −0.30 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 16:53 | −0.48 | −0.03 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Miller G | 53:58 | +2.31 |
| Jacob Markstrom G | 6:02 | +0.29 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Drouin L | 16:19 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.02 | +0.52 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 17:03 | +0.14 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Witkowski D | 13:45 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cedric Paquette C | 14:00 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.17 | −0.03 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 15:46 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| JT Brown R | 11:51 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Sustr D | 17:27 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Stralman D | 22:59 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Filppula C | 15:32 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.03 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 24:55 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Garrison D | 18:57 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 14:57 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Vermin R | 12:49 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Braydon Coburn D | 16:28 | −0.30 | +0.07 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 15:32 | −0.32 | +0.09 | −0.42 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 12:59 | −0.36 | +0.09 | −0.41 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 15:28 | −0.40 | +0.04 | −0.49 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 17:13 | −0.44 | +0.10 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 20:00 | −0.55 |
| Ben Bishop G | 40:00 | −2.17 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.