CAR beat TBL 1–0 in overtime. CAR lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Phillip Di Giuseppe scored at 1:26 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Cam Ward saved 2.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OT 1:26 | CAR | Phillip Di Giuseppe from Viktor Stalberg, Ron Hainsey | 0–1 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Vermin R | 10:46 | +0.37 | +0.33 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Witkowski D | 10:55 | +0.28 | +0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 14:32 | +0.22 | +0.31 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Slater Koekkoek D | 14:59 | +0.21 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Braydon Coburn D | 16:10 | +0.05 | +0.27 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Cedric Paquette C | 12:32 | +0.01 | +0.29 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 17:48 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| JT Brown R | 8:46 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 19:49 | −0.05 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.17 | +0.05 | ||
| Michael Bournival L | 7:08 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Filppula C | 20:05 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 23:47 | −0.10 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 21:42 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Sustr D | 17:35 | −0.28 | +0.05 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Stralman D | 25:33 | −0.30 | −0.32 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 12:22 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 15:52 | −0.72 | −0.01 | −0.56 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 26:35 | −0.76 | −0.19 | −0.58 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Bishop G | 60:48 | +0.75 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 11:37 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.16 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 24:17 | +0.18 | +0.20 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 18:21 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jay McClement C | 15:25 | +0.11 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.03 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 11:27 | +0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 16:33 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.35 | −0.01 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 25:48 | −0.01 | +0.16 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 18:37 | −0.02 | +0.15 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Stalberg L | 12:48 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 13:13 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 11:14 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lee Stempniak R | 17:05 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 18:12 | −0.23 | +0.12 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.03 | ||
| Andrej Nestrasil C | 7:40 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Ron Hainsey D | 22:48 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.19 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Rask C | 19:09 | −0.31 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Matt Tennyson D | 14:19 | −0.36 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 15:45 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward G | 61:26 | +2.91 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.