TBL beat PIT 5–4 in overtime. TBL lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Vladislav Namestnikov scored at 2:11 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:51 | TBL | Vladislav Namestnikov from Steven Stamkos, Nikita Nesterov | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 10:37 | PIT | Kris Letang from Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 8:12 | TBL | Valtteri FilppulaPP from Tyler Johnson, Steven Stamkos | 1–2 | 58% → 78% |
| P2 10:47 | TBL | Vladislav NamestnikovPP from Victor Hedman, Valtteri Filppula | 1–3 | 75% → 89% |
| P2 14:23 | PIT | Patric HornqvistPP from Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang | 2–3 | 11% → 25% |
| P3 10:13 | PIT | Trevor Daley from Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel | 3–3 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 13:48 | PIT | Chris Kunitz from Olli Maatta, Patric Hornqvist | 4–3 | 49% → 85% |
| P3 15:21 | TBL | Anton Stralman from Valtteri Filppula, Cedric Paquette | 4–4 | 13% → 51% |
| OT 2:11 | TBL | Vladislav Namestnikov from Nikita Kucherov | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Letang D | 28:47 | 1 | 1 | +1.14 | +0.28 | +0.85 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Trevor Daley D | 20:03 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.08 | +0.74 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kunitz L | 19:06 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.06 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Patric Hornqvist R | 20:03 | 1 | 2 | +0.49 | +0.11 | +0.37 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sidney Crosby C | 22:28 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.09 | −0.31 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.11 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 15:06 | +0.11 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Porter C | 8:36 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 20:51 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 20:29 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 14:50 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Lovejoy D | 16:34 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 12:26 | −0.08 | +0.11 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 3:37 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Kuhnhackl R | 13:43 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| David Perron L | 14:57 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Cullen C | 9:00 | −0.26 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.34 | +0.02 | ||
| Eric Fehr C | 15:35 | −0.29 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 22:02 | 2 | −0.29 | +0.10 | −0.41 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 62:11 | −2.55 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 17:01 | 3 | +1.97 | −0.07 | +2.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Anton Stralman D | 20:12 | 1 | +0.97 | −0.08 | +0.87 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Valtteri Filppula C | 21:55 | 1 | 2 | +0.62 | −0.11 | +0.74 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Jason Garrison D | 19:33 | +0.09 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:04 | 2 | +0.01 | −0.29 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.34 | +0.01 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 19:40 | −0.05 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| JT Brown R | 8:36 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Carle D | 7:46 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cedric Paquette C | 16:35 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brian Boyle C | 7:27 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Braydon Coburn D | 16:27 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 19:48 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Nesterov D | 9:09 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 16:53 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Sustr D | 18:17 | −0.27 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Callahan R | 20:10 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 17:55 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.17 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 22:48 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.16 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 62:11 | −0.73 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.