NYR beat ANA 3–2 in overtime. NYR also won the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mats Zuccarello scored on the power play at 2:37 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 54% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:16 |  ANA | Corey Perry from Rickard Rakell | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 17:50 | NYR | Derick Brassard unassisted | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P3 2:44 | NYR | Derick Brassard from Mats Zuccarello | 1–2 | 51% → 78% |
| P3 17:06 | ANA | Rickard Rakell from Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler | 2–2 | 8% → 49% |
| OT 2:37 | NYR | Mats ZuccarelloPP from Dan Boyle, Derick Brassard | 2–3 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickard Rakell R | 18:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.05 | +0.37 | +0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Corey Perry R | 18:31 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.02 | +0.39 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shawn Horcoff C | 12:45 | +0.29 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.34 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 21:40 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.25 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Clayton Stoner D | 11:14 | +0.10 | +0.07 | −0.04 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Hagelin L | 14:09 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Sami Vatanen D | 21:25 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 18:11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 12:59 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 8:30 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Thompson C | 13:17 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jiri Sekac L | 9:05 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 21:38 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bieksa D | 19:19 | −0.20 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Kesler C | 19:26 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.09 | ||
| Mike Santorelli C | 11:19 | −0.24 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 18:31 | −0.28 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 26:36 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 62:19 | −0.96 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derick Brassard C | 20:03 | 2 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.09 | +0.85 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.11 | +0.39 | +0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 25:25 | +0.21 | +0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Glass L | 10:05 | +0.14 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 20:13 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 20:17 | +0.11 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan McIlrath D | 17:42 | +0.05 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Lindberg L | 10:17 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 21:23 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Dan Boyle D | 21:38 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.27 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Fast R | 15:59 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Summers D | 14:56 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 10:23 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 17:43 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic Moore C | 15:06 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.23 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.17 | −0.03 | ||
| Emerson Etem R | 9:36 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rick Nash L | 19:27 | −0.14 | +0.10 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 11:12 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Henrik Lundqvist G | 62:37 | −0.54 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.