TBL beat TOR 5–4 in overtime. TBL lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Vladislav Namestnikov scored at 2:01 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jonathan Bernier allowed 3.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:59 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Vladislav Namestnikov | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 10:40 | TOR | Tyler BozakPP from James van Riemsdyk, PA Parenteau | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 18:03 | TOR | James van Riemsdyk from Tyler Bozak, PA Parenteau | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 11:34 | TOR | Morgan Rielly from Leo Komarov | 1–3 | 69% → 89% |
| P2 19:24 | TBL | Anton Stralman from Nikita Kucherov | 2–3 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 5:56 | TBL | Mike Blunden from Yanni Gourde, Andrej Sustr | 3–3 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 6:32 | TBL | Jonathan Marchessault from Alex Killorn, Andrej Sustr | 4–3 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 13:28 | TOR | Daniel Winnik from Roman Polak, Nick Spaling | 4–4 | 16% → 51% |
| OT 2:01 | TBL | Vladislav Namestnikov unassisted | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 18:58 | 1 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.01 | +0.42 | +0.25 | +0.01 | +0.34 | +0.00 |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 21:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.13 | +0.40 | +0.27 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Killorn L | 15:33 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.45 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Blunden R | 5:56 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.43 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:13 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.06 | +0.39 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Andrej Sustr D | 19:41 | 2 | +0.22 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Stralman D | 23:17 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.05 | +0.47 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Nesterov D | 9:45 | +0.20 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Garrison D | 18:26 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.08 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 6:55 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Braydon Coburn D | 12:57 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JT Brown R | 17:26 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 21:40 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.10 | ||
| Matt Carle D | 7:35 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 19:00 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 26:34 | −0.21 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Callahan R | 18:35 | −0.30 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Valtteri Filppula C | 19:31 | −0.34 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 62:01 | −1.73 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Bozak C | 17:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.22 | +0.20 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.10 |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 17:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.27 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Morgan Rielly D | 22:13 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.08 | +0.44 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leo Komarov R | 19:50 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Spaling C | 14:55 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Roman Polak D | 16:16 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.26 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Dion Phaneuf D | 22:47 | +0.12 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| PA Parenteau R | 17:14 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.26 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Hunwick D | 23:02 | +0.08 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:28 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Byron Froese C | 12:09 | +0.06 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Joffrey Lupul L | 12:04 | +0.05 | +0.21 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Winnik L | 13:03 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.42 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.34 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Corrado D | 8:10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Grabner L | 13:49 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 23:17 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shawn Matthias L | 10:06 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peter Holland C | 17:24 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bernier G | 62:01 | −3.53 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.