EDM beat NYR 7–5. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Taylor Hall scored at 18:26 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 50% to 95%. Anders Nilsson allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:35 | EDM | Lauri KorpikoskiPP from Iiro Pakarinen, Mark Letestu | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 12:16 | NYR | Mats Zuccarello from Chris Kreider, Dylan McIlrath | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 15:47 | EDM | Lauri Korpikoski from Matt Hendricks, Justin Schultz | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 16:57 | EDM | Teddy Purcell from Taylor Hall, Leon Draisaitl | 1–3 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 0:53 | NYR | Chris Kreider from Mats Zuccarello, Henrik Lundqvist | 2–3 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 8:44 | NYR | Derick Brassard from Rick Nash, Marc Staal | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 0:18 | EDM | Taylor Hall from Teddy Purcell, Leon Draisaitl | 3–4 | 53% → 77% |
| P3 2:40 | EDM | Darnell Nurse from Taylor Hall, Leon Draisaitl | 3–5 | 78% → 93% |
| P3 6:28 | NYR | Derick Brassard from Rick Nash, Keith Yandle | 4–5 | 5% → 20% |
| P3 18:14 | NYR | Rick NashPP from Dan Boyle, Ryan McDonagh | 5–5 | 6% → 50% |
| P3 18:26 | EDM | Taylor Hall from Leon Draisaitl, Teddy Purcell | 5–6 | 50% → 95% |
| P3 19:22 | EDM | Lauri KorpikoskiEN unassisted | 5–7 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.23 | +0.42 | +0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Derick Brassard C | 16:44 | 2 | +0.81 | +0.22 | +0.67 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Rick Nash L | 16:34 | 1 | 2 | +0.81 | +0.04 | +0.38 | +0.39 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Chris Kreider L | 16:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.11 | +0.42 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.34 | +0.01 |
| Dan Boyle D | 22:08 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.22 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keith Yandle D | 21:33 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.11 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan McIlrath D | 18:15 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 19:05 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.06 | +0.03 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 14:49 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Emerson Etem R | 13:18 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 19:57 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Glass L | 10:41 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Lindberg L | 12:52 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 14:44 | −0.20 | +0.08 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 | ||
| Jarret Stoll C | 13:29 | −0.25 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Dominic Moore C | 12:51 | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 14:57 | −0.30 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dan Girardi D | 18:09 | −0.39 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 16:26 | −0.72 |
| Henrik Lundqvist G | 42:40 | −2.26 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Hall L | 17:54 | 2 | 2 | +1.37 | +0.14 | +0.81 | +0.42 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 18:00 | 4 | +0.74 | +0.15 | −0.07 | +0.52 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.03 | |
| Teddy Purcell L | 16:46 | 1 | 2 | +0.69 | +0.15 | +0.38 | +0.33 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Darnell Nurse D | 23:04 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.04 | +0.42 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lauri Korpikoski L | 15:08 | 3 | +0.49 | +0.23 | +0.35 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Schultz D | 19:15 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Iiro Pakarinen R | 11:08 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.18 | −0.06 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrej Sekera D | 23:17 | +0.14 | +0.15 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Hendricks C | 15:01 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jujhar Khaira L | 13:04 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Gazdic L | 8:02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Klefbom D | 11:55 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lander C | 10:22 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mark Letestu C | 18:40 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 19:26 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Gryba D | 19:06 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 18:59 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Davidson D | 18:46 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anders Nilsson G | 60:00 | −2.82 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.