FLA beat TBL 5–4 in a shootout. FLA lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Aaron Ekblad scored on the power play at 19:22 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 4% to 49%. Ben Bishop allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:48 | FLA | Jussi Jokinen from Vincent Trocheck, Brian Campbell | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 15:22 | TBL | Cedric Paquette from JT Brown | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 1:02 | TBL | Vladislav Namestnikov from Steven Stamkos | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 2:39 | FLA | Nick Bjugstad from Reilly Smith, Jonathan Huberdeau | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 4:47 | FLA | Brandon PirriPP unassisted | 3–2 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 7:49 | TBL | Anton Stralman from Alex Killorn, Victor Hedman | 3–3 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 9:56 | TBL | Vladislav Namestnikov from JT Brown, Steven Stamkos | 3–4 | 52% → 83% |
| P3 19:22 | FLA | Aaron EkbladPP from Reilly Smith, Dave Bolland | 4–4 | 4% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pirri C | 15:08 | 1 | +1.01 | −0.01 | +0.52 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.67 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 27:39 | 1 | +0.94 | −0.08 | +0.82 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jussi Jokinen L | 19:08 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.19 | +0.71 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rocco Grimaldi R | 15:46 | +0.19 | +0.28 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 21:04 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.20 | +0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.10 | |
| Willie Mitchell D | 20:14 | +0.09 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dave Bolland C | 14:48 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 8:00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Petrovic D | 18:29 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinton Howden C | 8:44 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek MacKenzie C | 12:47 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaromir Jagr R | 17:28 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 19:54 | 2 | −0.11 | −0.26 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shawn Thornton L | 7:49 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Campbell D | 24:59 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 19:23 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 21:53 | −0.33 | −0.29 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 19:05 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.02 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Roberto Luongo G | 64:06 | −0.60 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 14:38 | 2 | +1.83 | +0.23 | +1.60 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Stralman D | 22:29 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.05 | +0.58 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cedric Paquette C | 8:50 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.06 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Condra R | 15:02 | +0.21 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JT Brown R | 8:46 | 2 | +0.13 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Braydon Coburn D | 17:34 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Garrison D | 20:45 | +0.12 | +0.06 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 13:20 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Sustr D | 18:37 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Carle D | 19:19 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 24:13 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.20 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Tyler Johnson C | 18:29 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 16:39 | −0.16 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.29 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 20:29 | 2 | −0.16 | +0.29 | −0.44 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Callahan R | 17:01 | −0.26 | +0.09 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Filppula C | 16:05 | −0.40 | +0.09 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.33 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 20:51 | −0.44 | −0.11 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 17:49 | 1 | −0.59 | −0.22 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Bishop G | 64:59 | −2.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.