TBL beat NJD 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NJD 2.2, TBL 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Tyler Johnson scored on the power play at 1:22 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Keith Kinkaid allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:06 | NJD | Steve BernierPP from Adam Henrique, Scott Gomez | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 6:26 | TBL | Tyler Johnson from Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 9:13 | TBL | Nikita NesterovPP from Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov | 1–2 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 10:17 | NJD | Patrik Elias from Stephen Gionta | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 17:42 | TBL | Steven StamkosPP from Ondrej Palat, Victor Hedman | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 17:58 | NJD | Steve Bernier from Adam Henrique, Scott Gomez | 3–3 | 24% → 47% |
| OT 1:22 | TBL | Tyler JohnsonPP from Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat | 3–4 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Bernier R | 11:43 | 2 | +1.80 | +0.33 | +1.49 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrik Elias C | 19:08 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.13 | +0.59 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.03 | |
| Raman Hrabarenka D | 11:55 | +0.31 | +0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andy Greene D | 28:30 | +0.23 | +0.27 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 12:31 | 2 | +0.19 | +0.33 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Helgeson D | 15:18 | +0.08 | +0.25 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Josefson C | 14:45 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Scott Gomez C | 13:34 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.42 | −0.37 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Stephen Gionta C | 19:26 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.03 | |
| Jordin Tootoo R | 13:25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Zajac C | 19:49 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 26:03 | −0.10 | +0.25 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Cammalleri L | 18:30 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tuomo Ruutu L | 7:23 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Matteau C | 7:15 | −0.25 | +0.05 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Fraser D | 20:15 | −0.31 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dainius Zubrus C | 14:25 | −0.35 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 17:58 | −0.55 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.35 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Keith Kinkaid G | 61:10 | −1.75 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Johnson C | 18:28 | 2 | 1 | +1.86 | −0.04 | +1.39 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.53 | −0.01 |
| Steven Stamkos C | 18:09 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.04 | +0.59 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nikita Nesterov D | 19:06 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.13 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Stralman D | 18:28 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Witkowski D | 13:29 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 18:58 | 3 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 22:53 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 14:00 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 17:50 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 14:54 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Filppula C | 21:41 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Cedric Paquette C | 15:01 | −0.20 | −0.30 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Brenden Morrow L | 9:03 | −0.24 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 17:57 | 3 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.24 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Carle D | 18:30 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Barberio D | 15:21 | −0.29 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| JT Brown R | 9:41 | −0.45 | −0.27 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Callahan R | 17:56 | −0.47 | −0.05 | −0.38 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Bishop G | 61:22 | −0.69 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.