TBL beat CAR 2–1. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nikita Kucherov scored at 19:29 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 51% to 97%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 6:35 | TBL | Nikita KucherovPP from Anton Stralman, Evgeni Nabokov | 0–1 | 53% → 80% |
| P3 12:03 | CAR | Justin Faulk from Riley Nash, Andrej Sekera | 1–1 | 15% → 49% |
| P3 19:29 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Alex Killorn, Matt Carle | 1–2 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Faulk D | 23:39 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.24 | +0.76 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Rask C | 15:18 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Ron Hainsey D | 18:25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Dwyer R | 13:40 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Boychuk L | 10:38 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 18:23 | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Tim Gleason D | 18:19 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay McClement C | 13:11 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 15:39 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Malone C | 12:21 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Terry L | 10:34 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jiri Tlusty L | 17:09 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John-Michael Liles D | 18:45 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Staal C | 17:54 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Michal Jordan D | 14:33 | −0.26 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Sekera D | 22:26 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Gerbe C | 17:18 | −0.37 | −0.11 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Nash C | 16:46 | 1 | −0.62 | −0.08 | −0.48 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward G | 59:44 | +0.18 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov R | 14:49 | 2 | +1.73 | +0.10 | +1.60 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Stralman D | 22:32 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.27 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 23:55 | +0.24 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 17:10 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 12:11 | +0.10 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 11:51 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Morrow L | 7:38 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Connolly R | 11:43 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| JT Brown R | 10:12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Callahan R | 18:26 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 16:17 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Carle D | 15:42 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Garrison D | 19:49 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 17:45 | −0.12 | +0.10 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cedric Paquette C | 14:18 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 15:02 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Sustr D | 20:14 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Filppula C | 20:41 | −0.41 | +0.18 | −0.65 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Nabokov G | 59:45 | +0.93 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.