PIT beat TBL 4–3 in overtime. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: James Neal scored on the power play at 1:27 of overtime, moving PIT’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Anders Lindback allowed 3.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:29 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyPP from Evgeni Malkin, Jeff Zatkoff | 0–1 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 16:44 | TBL | Valtteri FilppulaPP from Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 8:17 | TBL | Steven Stamkos from Alex Killorn, Radko Gudas | 2–1 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 11:07 | PIT | Evgeni MalkinPP from Matt Niskanen, Sidney Crosby | 2–2 | 20% → 53% |
| P3 16:43 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Jussi Jokinen | 2–3 | 51% → 91% |
| P3 18:38 | TBL | Ondrej Palat from Radko Gudas, Matt Carle | 3–3 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 1:27 | PIT | James NealPP from Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby | 3–4 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valtteri Filppula C | 18:14 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.03 | +0.41 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.16 | −0.04 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.29 | +0.24 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 |
| Ondrej Palat L | 18:23 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.23 | +0.40 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teddy Purcell L | 17:54 | +0.13 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kostka D | 18:04 | +0.13 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Carle D | 22:25 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 15:59 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.14 | −0.06 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | |
| Tom Pyatt L | 11:30 | +0.06 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sami Salo D | 17:13 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Callahan R | 16:27 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 20:53 | 2 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Malone L | 10:04 | −0.09 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| JT Brown R | 11:27 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Richard Panik R | 11:45 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Thompson C | 10:13 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 20:52 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.07 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Brewer D | 21:10 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 15:52 | −0.68 | −0.34 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anders Lindback G | 61:27 | −3.50 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Malkin C | 19:43 | 2 | 2 | +1.49 | +0.18 | +0.56 | +0.43 | −0.01 | +0.33 | +0.01 |
| Sidney Crosby C | 23:11 | 1 | 2 | +0.92 | +0.19 | +0.38 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.09 |
| James Neal L | 18:17 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.23 | +0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Niskanen D | 24:44 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.32 | −0.11 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jussi Jokinen L | 15:46 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.12 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 20:10 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Despres D | 15:20 | +0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Glass L | 12:16 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Pyatt L | 10:22 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Adams R | 11:15 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Gibbons C | 12:58 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kunitz L | 19:26 | −0.12 | +0.14 | −0.22 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 17:20 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rob Scuderi D | 17:16 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Sutter C | 12:42 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Brooks Orpik D | 22:23 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcel Goc C | 13:12 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | ||
| Lee Stempniak R | 17:02 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeff Zatkoff G | 60:34 | −2.74 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.