PHX beat TBL 4–3 in a shootout. PHX lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ondrej Palat scored on the power play at 19:22 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 5% to 51%. Ben Bishop allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHX–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:26 | TBL | Tyler JohnsonSH from Ondrej Palat, Eric Brewer | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 1:01 | PHX | Brandon McMillan from Keith Yandle, Shane Doan | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 19:07 | TBL | Ondrej Palat from Ryan Callahan, Keith Aulie | 1–2 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 2:13 | PHX | Martin Erat unassisted | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 7:48 | PHX | Mikkel Boedker from Antoine Vermette, Zbynek Michalek | 3–2 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 19:22 | TBL | Ondrej PalatPP from Valtteri Filppula, Matt Carle | 3–3 | 5% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHX
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radim Vrbata R | 15:50 | +0.56 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.80 | ||
| Brandon McMillan L | 14:41 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.09 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Martin Erat R | 12:13 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.15 | +0.79 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Mikkel Boedker L | 17:33 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.25 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.31 | |
| Chris Summers D | 15:25 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Gormley D | 13:22 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Ribeiro C | 20:40 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Chipchura C | 8:06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Jeff Halpern C | 13:59 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Lauri Korpikoski L | 15:57 | −0.19 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 29:33 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zbynek Michalek D | 26:22 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Moss R | 13:59 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Andy Miele C | 10:42 | −0.27 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Antoine Vermette C | 20:42 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.30 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.16 | +0.06 | −0.00 | |
| Michael Stone D | 23:44 | −0.39 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Doan R | 17:38 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.08 | −0.36 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Keith Yandle D | 21:34 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.41 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Smith G | 65:00 | +1.46 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ondrej Palat L | 21:02 | 2 | 1 | +1.10 | +0.41 | +0.98 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.31 |
| Tyler Johnson C | 16:55 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.02 | +0.52 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Carle D | 25:58 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.23 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keith Aulie D | 10:48 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Thompson C | 10:05 | +0.14 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Filppula C | 21:24 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.48 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.37 | |
| Richard Panik R | 11:24 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Eric Brewer D | 19:57 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sami Salo D | 3:05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 26:14 | −0.04 | +0.21 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JT Brown R | 13:55 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Barberio D | 17:29 | −0.08 | +0.27 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Purcell L | 18:19 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael Kostka D | 19:13 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Pyatt L | 11:32 | −0.16 | +0.13 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 23:31 | −0.18 | +0.14 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 22:11 | −0.29 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Callahan R | 21:24 | 1 | −0.50 | +0.50 | −0.69 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Bishop G | 64:34 | −1.54 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.