TBL beat CAR 3–2 in overtime. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Radko Gudas scored at 2:16 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:35 | CAR | Jiri Tlusty from Patrick Dwyer, Riley Nash | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 16:12 |  TBL | Victor Hedman from Valtteri Filppula, Alex Killorn | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 10:11 | CAR | Jiri TlustySH from Eric Staal, Ron Hainsey | 2–1 | 46% → 68% |
| P3 7:56 | TBL | Martin St. LouisPP from Victor Hedman, Valtteri Filppula | 2–2 | 23% → 52% |
| OT 2:16 | TBL | Radko Gudas from Nate Thompson | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiri Tlusty L | 12:27 | 2 | +1.92 | +0.09 | +1.68 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Jay Harrison D | 4:23 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Dwyer R | 14:22 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nathan Gerbe C | 14:20 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Nash C | 10:05 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tim Gleason D | 16:20 | −0.08 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Manny Malhotra C | 13:34 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Alexander Semin R | 15:54 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Eric Staal C | 19:55 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Drayson Bowman L | 9:33 | −0.24 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ron Hainsey D | 25:29 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 17:45 | −0.26 | −0.26 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Dvorak R | 12:45 | −0.34 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Tuomo Ruutu L | 17:09 | −0.42 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | ||
| Andrej Sekera D | 28:39 | −0.42 | −0.23 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Bellemore D | 19:58 | −0.52 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 29:23 | −0.52 | −0.13 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 17:56 | −0.64 | −0.07 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Peters G | 62:16 | +0.98 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Hedman D | 26:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.05 | +0.77 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Radko Gudas D | 22:34 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.16 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Martin St. Louis R | 24:52 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.12 | +0.17 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 15:01 | +0.30 | +0.21 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Philippe Cote D | 9:28 | +0.25 | +0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JT Brown R | 12:40 | +0.22 | +0.22 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Purcell L | 20:06 | +0.12 | +0.09 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.01 | ||
| Sami Salo D | 20:17 | +0.10 | +0.25 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 19:08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.05 | ||
| Valtteri Filppula C | 21:30 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.14 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Eric Brewer D | 8:32 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Thompson C | 13:39 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.31 | −0.39 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Andrej Sustr D | 13:33 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 18:00 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Matt Carle D | 23:33 | −0.20 | +0.15 | −0.39 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Richard Panik R | 9:46 | −0.22 | +0.05 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 16:59 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.26 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tom Pyatt L | 8:32 | −0.41 | +0.04 | −0.44 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Bishop G | 62:15 | −0.13 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.