WSH beat TBL 6–5 in a shootout. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Alex Ovechkin scored on the power play at 19:27 of the third, moving WSH’s win probability from 5% to 51%. Ben Bishop allowed 4.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:26 | TBL | Martin St. LouisPP from Sami Salo, Tyler Johnson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:49 | TBL | Nikita KucherovPP from Teddy Purcell, Matt Carle | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P1 11:07 | TBL | Nate Thompson from JT Brown, B.J. Crombeen | 3–0 | 77% → 90% |
| P1 14:15 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Nicklas Backstrom | 3–1 | 9% → 22% |
| P2 6:24 | WSH | Nicklas BackstromPP from Mikhail Grabovski, Troy Brouwer | 3–2 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 12:41 | TBL | Tyler Johnson from Ondrej Palat, Martin St. Louis | 4–2 | 69% → 86% |
| P2 16:38 | WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom | 4–3 | 13% → 30% |
| P2 18:48 | WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom | 4–4 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 8:36 | TBL | Ondrej Palat from Tyler Johnson, Martin St. Louis | 5–4 | 48% → 79% |
| P3 19:27 | WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom | 5–5 | 5% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov R | 14:07 | 1 | +1.60 | +0.02 | +0.74 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.80 | |
| Teddy Purcell L | 19:50 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.04 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.03 | |
| Tyler Johnson C | 20:50 | 1 | 2 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 |
| Nate Thompson C | 16:08 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.03 | +0.80 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 20:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.43 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.47 |
| Martin St. Louis R | 20:45 | 1 | 2 | +0.11 | −0.04 | +0.61 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.47 |
| Matt Carle D | 28:13 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.11 | −0.13 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrej Sustr D | 11:36 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Barberio D | 7:18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JT Brown R | 11:02 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Richard Panik R | 5:29 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| B.J. Crombeen R | 8:31 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Sami Salo D | 20:40 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Taormina D | 11:33 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 28:38 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Filppula C | 21:44 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.33 | −0.02 | −0.31 | ||
| Eric Brewer D | 22:02 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 22:20 | −0.62 | −0.06 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Bishop G | 65:00 | −4.13 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin L | 22:52 | 4 | +3.19 | −0.02 | +3.18 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.19 | |
| Mikhail Grabovski C | 18:13 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.06 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +1.03 | |
| Troy Brouwer R | 23:43 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.05 | −0.44 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.16 | +0.03 | +1.03 | |
| Eric Fehr C | 18:06 | +0.56 | +0.11 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.68 | ||
| Karl Alzner D | 23:13 | +0.26 | +0.14 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 21:55 | 1 | 4 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.65 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.47 |
| Nate Schmidt D | 14:21 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 3:17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steve Oleksy D | 12:40 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Volpatti L | 4:32 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Joel Ward R | 17:34 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Beagle C | 8:31 | −0.09 | +0.10 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 34:48 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Chimera L | 16:45 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Erat R | 17:30 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 18:39 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 18:36 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Green D | 17:57 | 1 | −0.75 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.66 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 52:47 | −0.16 |
| Braden Holtby G | 11:07 | −2.52 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.