PIT beat TBL 5–4. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Matt Niskanen scored on the power play at 19:41 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:25 | TBL | Valtteri Filppula from Alex Killorn, Richard Panik | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 2:14 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyPP from Jussi Jokinen, Chris Kunitz | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 5:11 | TBL | Steven Stamkos from Martin St. Louis, Victor Hedman | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 7:01 | PIT | Brooks Orpik from Pascal Dupuis, Chris Kunitz | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 15:42 | TBL | Teddy PurcellPP from Sami Salo, Martin St. Louis | 2–3 | 54% → 75% |
| P3 0:25 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Rob Scuderi, Matt Niskanen | 3–3 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 10:26 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyPP from Jussi Jokinen, Evgeni Malkin | 4–3 | 50% → 80% |
| P3 16:58 | TBL | Alex KillornPP from Richard Panik, Tyler Johnson | 4–4 | 10% → 51% |
| P3 19:41 | PIT | Matt NiskanenPP from Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby | 5–4 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby C | 22:09 | 3 | 1 | +2.59 | +0.38 | +2.13 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Brooks Orpik D | 25:50 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.30 | +0.61 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Niskanen D | 19:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.10 | +0.86 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Paul Martin D | 28:09 | +0.08 | +0.36 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Rob Scuderi D | 20:08 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Vitale C | 10:52 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Pascal Dupuis R | 20:02 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dustin Jeffrey L | 9:33 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Chris Kunitz L | 17:43 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.26 | −0.19 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Sutter C | 14:27 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jussi Jokinen L | 14:12 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.17 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Chuck Kobasew R | 15:03 | −0.01 | +0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Adams R | 15:10 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Deryk Engelland D | 13:28 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beau Bennett R | 6:05 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Glass L | 8:47 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 10:24 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 19:05 | 2 | −0.39 | +0.27 | −0.76 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 60:00 | −2.49 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:23 | 1 | +1.00 | −0.02 | +0.84 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Teddy Purcell L | 14:57 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.03 | +0.72 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Valtteri Filppula C | 25:32 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.25 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 21:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.17 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Pierre-Cedric Labrie L | 4:05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrej Sustr D | 12:19 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 11:52 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sami Salo D | 19:10 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 17:41 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| B.J. Crombeen R | 5:50 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 14:04 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.02 | |
| Ryan Malone L | 13:08 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Thompson C | 8:31 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Martin St. Louis R | 21:30 | 2 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Eric Brewer D | 14:04 | −0.26 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Richard Panik R | 20:46 | 2 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Carle D | 24:29 | −0.36 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 24:13 | −0.60 | −0.32 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anders Lindback G | 59:53 | −2.45 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.