NYI beat TBL 4–2. NYI also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Matt Martin scored at 13:34 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 51% to 87%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:45 | NYI | Michael Grabner from John Tavares | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 4:44 | TBL | Richard Panik from Vincent Lecavalier, Matt Carle | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 8:22 | NYI | Josh Bailey from Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 4:00 | TBL | Matt Carle from Steven Stamkos, Benoit Pouliot | 2–2 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 13:34 | NYI | Matt Martin from Anders Lee, Mark Streit | 2–3 | 51% → 87% |
| P3 19:46 | NYI | Andrew MacDonaldEN from Josh Bailey | 2–4 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Panik R | 10:08 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.10 | +0.76 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Carle D | 24:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.00 | +0.69 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Keith Aulie D | 18:09 | +0.13 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 11:28 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 20:53 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.26 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.36 | +0.02 | |
| Eric Brewer D | 20:20 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Pyatt L | 12:54 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| B.J. Crombeen R | 9:24 | −0.07 | +0.20 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Thompson C | 14:20 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Vincent Lecavalier C | 14:09 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 13:20 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sami Salo D | 22:40 | −0.30 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin St. Louis R | 21:02 | −0.32 | −0.35 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Purcell L | 18:36 | −0.35 | −0.26 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Taormina D | 16:25 | −0.40 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Connolly R | 11:06 | −0.60 | −0.14 | −0.45 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 22:02 | −0.69 | −0.15 | −0.54 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Benoit Pouliot L | 18:09 | 1 | −0.69 | −0.22 | −0.46 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Bishop G | 58:53 | +0.08 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Grabner L | 17:07 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.17 | +0.83 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Martin L | 16:01 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.00 | +0.87 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew MacDonald D | 21:28 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.45 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Bailey R | 19:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.10 | +0.53 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Colin McDonald R | 15:13 | +0.37 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Keith Aucoin C | 10:38 | +0.33 | +0.35 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 21:02 | +0.20 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lubomir Visnovsky D | 22:51 | +0.17 | +0.27 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 18:08 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.21 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 9:38 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Hickey D | 19:54 | −0.13 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Martinek D | 15:16 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Streit D | 19:48 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 16:45 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Anders Lee C | 6:48 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brad Boyes R | 14:56 | −0.36 | +0.34 | −0.70 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frans Nielsen C | 18:00 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.22 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jesse Joensuu L | 10:49 | −0.93 | +0.41 | −1.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Nabokov G | 60:00 | +0.75 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.