TBL beat NJD 5–4 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (NJD 2.4, TBL 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Alex Killorn scored on the power play at 19:44 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 3% to 51%. Martin Brodeur allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:50 | NJD | Andrei Loktionov from Matt D'Agostini, Andy Greene | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 6:41 | NJD | Tom KostopoulosPP unassisted | 2–0 | 67% → 83% |
| P2 8:00 | TBL | Steven Stamkos from Martin St. Louis, Keith Aulie | 2–1 | 17% → 32% |
| P2 10:26 | TBL | Nate Thompson from Richard Panik, Radko Gudas | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 13:58 | NJD | Andy GreenePP from Matt D'Agostini, Marek Zidlicky | 3–2 | 48% → 70% |
| P3 2:39 | NJD | Ryan CarterSH unassisted | 4–2 | 73% → 90% |
| P3 7:11 | TBL | Steven Stamkos from Alex Killorn | 4–3 | 6% → 23% |
| P3 19:44 | TBL | Alex KillornPP from Steven Stamkos, Matt Carle | 4–4 | 3% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Greene D | 26:37 | 1 | 1 | +1.21 | +0.32 | +0.70 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Carter L | 13:01 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.08 | +0.82 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Loktionov C | 17:02 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.04 | +0.86 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Kostopoulos R | 9:27 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.05 | +0.46 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Stephen Gionta C | 14:13 | +0.19 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryce Salvador D | 24:25 | +0.12 | +0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 21:18 | +0.12 | +0.22 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Sestito L | 7:37 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Marek Zidlicky D | 27:14 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexei Ponikarovsky L | 9:08 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Fayne D | 17:27 | −0.02 | +0.20 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steve Bernier R | 15:29 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Volchenkov D | 12:36 | −0.15 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peter Harrold D | 15:56 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt D'Agostini R | 15:55 | 2 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Clarkson R | 21:30 | −0.52 | +0.06 | −0.57 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Zajac C | 22:18 | −0.54 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.35 | ||
| Patrik Elias C | 22:47 | −0.57 | −0.03 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.12 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Brodeur G | 65:00 | −2.47 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos C | 23:39 | 2 | 1 | +0.97 | −0.08 | +0.98 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 |
| Alex Killorn L | 20:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.02 | +0.81 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 |
| Nate Thompson C | 22:26 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.02 | +0.77 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | |
| Teddy Purcell L | 17:59 | +0.46 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.62 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 26:44 | +0.45 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.41 | ||
| Tom Pyatt L | 10:45 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 14:26 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Cory Conacher C | 8:22 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 12:52 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Sustr D | 13:07 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sami Salo D | 24:30 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin St. Louis R | 25:39 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Carle D | 23:18 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 15:23 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Richard Panik R | 12:25 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.13 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Keith Aulie D | 5:38 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Brewer D | 16:31 | −0.34 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Benoit Pouliot L | 16:55 | −0.50 | −0.01 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Garon G | 64:09 | −0.75 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.