ANA beat VGK 4–3. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Beckett Sennecke scored at 19:52 of the first, moving ANA’s win probability from 47% to 66%. Lukas Dostal saved 2.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:52 | ANA | Beckett Sennecke from Leo Carlsson, Tristan Luneau | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 1:33 | ANA | Alex Killorn from Noah Warren, Mikael Granlund | 2–0 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 2:28 | ANA | Jeff Malott from Tim Washe, Jackson LaCombe | 3–0 | 81% → 93% |
| P2 7:03 | ANA | Leo Carlsson from A.J. Greer, Cutter Gauthier | 4–0 | 94% → 99% |
| P3 4:38 |  VGK | Shea Theodore from Brett Howden, Jack Eichel | 4–1 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 6:07 | VGK | Tomas HertlPP from Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel | 4–2 | 1% → 7% |
| P3 17:10 | VGK | Braeden Bowman from Victor Olofsson, Brayden McNabb | 4–3 | 1% → 9% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Carlsson C | 17:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.09 | +0.36 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.16 | −0.01 |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 18:04 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.02 | +0.36 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Malott L | 10:39 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.04 | +0.39 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 15:14 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.13 | +0.39 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Warren D | 9:33 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tristan Luneau D | 26:58 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Hinds D | 9:15 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 29:37 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Mitchell D | 20:38 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Judd Caulfield R | 13:17 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 13:24 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.23 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Washe C | 16:03 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 10:34 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Nesterenko C | 11:49 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 18:39 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 21:10 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 14:03 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 17:51 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.09 | −0.26 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.31 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 60:00 | +2.76 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 22:22 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.43 | −0.10 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 22:07 | 2 | +0.37 | +0.13 | −0.07 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.03 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 24:40 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.19 | +0.17 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 17:23 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.27 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Braeden Bowman R | 12:16 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.06 | +0.23 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 20:39 | +0.11 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 17:57 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 13:13 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brett Howden C | 14:58 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.30 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| William Karlsson C | 20:13 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.16 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 19:33 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Connelly L | 10:30 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 15:39 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Gatcomb C | 7:33 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 16:48 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 8:24 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:13 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 19:14 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 57:40 | −2.16 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.