BOS beat WPG 4–3 in overtime. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: JJ Peterka scored at 3:21 of overtime, moving BOS’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Stuart Skinner allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:52 |  WPG | Dylan DeMelo from Morgan Barron, Adam Lowry | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 9:23 | BOS | Hampus Lindholm from Morgan Geekie, Will Borgen | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 15:20 | BOS | James Hagens from Nikita Zadorov, Mark Kastelic | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 1:50 | WPG | Kyle ConnorPP from Gabriel Vilardi, Cole Perfetti | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 19:52 | WPG | Mario Ferraro from Adam Lowry, Kyle Connor | 2–3 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 18:22 | BOS | Elias LindholmPP from David Pastrnak, Mason Lohrei | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 3:21 | BOS | JJ Peterka from David Pastrnak, Nikita Zadorov | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Lindholm C | 15:53 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.35 | +0.59 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.01 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 21:42 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.25 | +0.44 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| JJ Peterka R | 21:19 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.51 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| James Hagens C | 14:14 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.00 | +0.37 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Pastrnak R | 22:04 | 2 | +0.21 | +0.17 | −0.25 | +0.30 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 20:07 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 20:54 | 2 | +0.07 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 11:02 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.01 | ||
| Mason Lohrei D | 21:53 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Will Borgen D | 19:32 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Kastelic C | 9:17 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Tanner Jeannot L | 10:15 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 14:01 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 18:35 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fraser Minten C | 16:50 | −0.49 | −0.51 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 16:05 | −0.49 | −0.05 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.31 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 15:55 | −0.57 | −0.55 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 19:33 | −0.66 | −0.49 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 63:04 | +0.07 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Morrissey D | 25:22 | +0.98 | +1.31 | −0.19 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 22:29 | +0.75 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 20:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.82 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 22:53 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.07 | +0.44 | −0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 17:58 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.22 | +0.37 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 19:25 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.11 | −0.09 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 12:17 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Isak Rosen R | 10:50 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 17:06 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.32 | −0.28 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Morgan Barron C | 15:53 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.23 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Iafallo L | 12:10 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brad Lambert C | 11:49 | −0.15 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyrel Bauer D | 5:58 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 16:07 | 2 | −0.18 | −0.48 | −0.06 | +0.30 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Samberg D | 23:56 | −0.19 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 11:45 | −0.26 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Viggo Björck C | 15:42 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 24:37 | −0.50 | −0.41 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 64:00 | −3.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.