WSH beat CAR 5–2. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Alex Tuch scored at 6:33 of the first, moving WSH’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Logan Thompson saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:33 |  WSH | Alex Tuch from Pierre-Luc Dubois, Alex Ovechkin | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 11:33 | WSH | Cole Hutson from Ilya Protas, Aliaksei Protas | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P1 14:23 | WSH | Alex Tuch from Pierre-Luc Dubois, Tom Wilson | 3–0 | 78% → 91% |
| P2 1:36 | WSH | Jakob ChychrunPP from Dylan Strome | 4–0 | 93% → 99% |
| P2 16:50 |  CAR | Sebastian AhoPP from Andrei Svechnikov, Jackson Blake | 4–1 | 1% → 3% |
| P2 16:58 | WSH | Ryan Leonard from Dylan Strome, Jakob Chychrun | 5–1 | 97% → 99% |
| P3 10:50 | CAR | Logan Stankoven from K'Andre Miller, William Carrier | 5–2 | 0% → 1% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Tuch R | 16:38 | 2 | +0.79 | +0.06 | +0.64 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.16 | −0.04 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 13:11 | 2 | +0.25 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 12:08 | 2 | +0.24 | +0.04 | −0.06 | +0.42 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.01 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 18:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.36 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Leonard R | 12:08 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.27 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Protas L | 11:32 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Vincent Desharnais D | 21:15 | +0.15 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Hutson D | 17:08 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.14 | +0.31 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.31 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 16:37 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 12:46 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.13 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 17:36 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 18:48 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 13:55 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 16:18 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 22:29 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Sourdif C | 13:00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 12:16 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 19:29 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 59:53 | +1.70 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Carrier L | 11:30 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.16 | −0.01 | |
| Sean Walker D | 19:05 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 22:11 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 20:15 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 18:39 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.26 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.03 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 19:51 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.40 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.31 | −0.01 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 11:44 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 12:35 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 13:34 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 9:25 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 18:32 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 12:47 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 17:33 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 22:40 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charles Alexis Legault D | 11:07 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 14:54 | −0.25 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 19:02 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.34 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 19:27 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.04 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi G | 60:00 | −1.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.