EDM beat VAN 9–7. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Vasily Podkolzin scored on the power play at 9:26 of the first, moving EDM’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Kevin Lankinen allowed 5.1 goals more than expected.
Shots on goal
32 – 22
Expected goals
3.4 – 2.7
xG share
EDM 56%
Model before the game
EDM 68%
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
EDM goalVAN goal
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
EDMVAN
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
1 G, 4 A · 22:03 TOI
On-ice +0.10 · Finishing +0.67 · Playmaking +0.66 · Faceoffs −0.05
+1.37
2 G, 1 A · 20:19 TOI
On-ice +0.11 · Finishing +0.57 · Playmaking +0.16 · Faceoffs −0.06
+0.77
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:26 | EDM | Vasily PodkolzinPP from Kasperi Kapanen, Connor McDavid | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:26 | EDM | Owen Michaels from Mathieu Joseph, Evan Bouchard | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 14:42 | EDM | Evan Bouchard unassisted | 3–0 | 78% → 91% |
| P1 19:32 | EDM | Ryan Shea from Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl | 4–0 | 93% → 99% |
| P2 0:27 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid | 5–0 | 99% → 99% |
| P2 4:31 |  VAN | Paul Cotter from Liam Ohgren | 5–1 | 1% → 1% |
| P2 5:04 | EDM | Trent Frederic from Isaac Howard | 6–1 | 99% → 99% |
| P2 5:47 | VAN | Brock Boeser from Paul Cotter, Jamie Oleksiak | 6–2 | 1% → 1% |
| P2 7:49 | EDM | Connor McDavidSH unassisted | 7–2 | 99% → 99% |
| P2 8:23 | EDM | Kasperi KapanenSH unassisted | 8–2 | 99% → 99% |
| P2 19:59 | VAN | Arshdeep Bains from Elias Pettersson, Filip Hronek | 8–3 | 1% → 1% |
| P3 1:53 | VAN | Marco Rossi from Jonathan Lekkerimäki, Tom Willander | 8–4 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 4:43 | VAN | Marco Rossi from Arshdeep Bains, Luke Schenn | 8–5 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 7:37 | VAN | Elias PetterssonPP from Marco Rossi, Brock Boeser | 8–6 | 1% → 6% |
| P3 9:26 | EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from Connor McDavid, Vasily Podkolzin | 9–6 | 96% → 99% |
| P3 18:31 | VAN | Jamie Oleksiak from Filip Hronek, Elias Pettersson | 9–7 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 22:03 | 1 | 4 | +1.37 | +0.10 | +0.67 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 18:48 | 1 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.10 | +0.76 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 20:19 | 2 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.11 | +0.57 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Evan Bouchard D | 24:21 | 1 | 2 | +0.69 | +0.18 | +0.26 | +0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Shea D | 23:05 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 18:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.12 | +0.27 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Owen Michaels R | 13:23 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.06 | +0.35 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 20:42 | +0.33 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Dach C | 12:46 | +0.24 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.32 | +0.01 | ||
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 10:01 | +0.17 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 15:07 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.06 | −0.09 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 24:47 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Formenton L | 16:15 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 10:55 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.26 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Samanski C | 8:41 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isaac Howard L | 10:58 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Jones L | 11:41 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 13:02 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devon Levi G | 59:51 | −4.32 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rossi C | 15:16 | 2 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.00 | +0.57 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.03 |
| Elias Pettersson C | 17:36 | 1 | 2 | +0.53 | +0.00 | +0.29 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Paul Cotter C | 16:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.13 | +0.35 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Brock Boeser R | 18:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.00 | +0.42 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Arshdeep Bains L | 11:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.12 | +0.37 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 21:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.10 | +0.43 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jonathan Lekkerimäki R | 12:04 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson D | 16:17 | +0.13 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam Ohgren L | 18:33 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 23:02 | 2 | +0.11 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.25 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Sasson C | 13:36 | +0.08 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.02 | ||
| Tom Willander D | 21:11 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 14:02 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 13:23 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Linus Karlsson C | 13:47 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zeev Buium D | 20:58 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 11:08 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 15:37 | −0.53 | −0.00 | −0.43 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Leevi Meriläinen G | 30:41 | −0.07 |
| Kevin Lankinen G | 28:23 | −5.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.