SEA beat CGY 6–1. SEA also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jordan Eberle scored on the power play at 9:10 of the first, moving SEA’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Dustin Wolf allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:10 |  SEA | Jordan EberlePP from Jared McCann, Vince Dunn | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:42 | SEA | Vince Dunn from Ryan Winterton, Shane Wright | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P1 19:30 | SEA | Frederick Gaudreau from Kaapo Kakko, Ryker Evans | 3–0 | 80% → 92% |
| P3 3:13 | SEA | Chandler Stephenson from Vince Dunn, Joey Daccord | 4–0 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 4:04 | SEA | Matty Beniers from Jared McCann | 5–0 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 16:35 |  CGY | Ryan Strome from Yegor Sharangovich, Connor Zary | 5–1 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 17:01 | SEA | Kaapo Kakko from Jared McCann, Matty Beniers | 6–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kakko R | 16:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.04 | +0.40 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 |
| Jared McCann L | 17:54 | 3 | +0.41 | +0.03 | −0.21 | +0.58 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 16:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.05 | +0.40 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Vince Dunn D | 20:37 | 1 | 2 | +0.36 | +0.03 | +0.38 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 13:58 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.08 | +0.36 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 17:52 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Ryker Evans D | 20:42 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 16:59 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.03 | +0.31 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Berkly Catton C | 19:00 | +0.06 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 15:55 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.16 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Winterton C | 16:17 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.13 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 14:28 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Douglas C | 5:58 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 18:48 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 24:11 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Mahura D | 14:28 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Melanson R | 9:31 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 16:05 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 59:30 | +1.16 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Strome C | 16:01 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.02 | +0.32 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Connor Zary C | 13:19 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.04 | −0.12 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.01 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 17:14 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yan Kuznetsov D | 18:10 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 21:07 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 12:48 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Zayne Parekh D | 17:47 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 19:14 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 12:28 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 20:55 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:07 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 13:34 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Samuel Honzek L | 15:32 | −0.18 | +0.08 | −0.20 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 11:29 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 21:18 | −0.24 | +0.09 | −0.28 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Gridin R | 12:10 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 12:40 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.02 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 17:11 | −0.41 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.32 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 59:50 | −2.06 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.