MIN beat NSH 3–1. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kirill Kaprizov scored at 4:42 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 75% to 92%. Jesper Wallstedt saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:35 | MIN | Nick Foligno from Michael McCarron, Olli Maatta | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 13:48 | MIN | Blake ColemanPP from Bobby Brink, Danila Yurov | 2–0 | 65% → 78% |
| P2 9:23 |  NSH | Roman Josi from Filip Forsberg, Steven Stamkos | 2–1 | 17% → 32% |
| P3 4:42 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Quinn Hughes, Jared Spurgeon | 3–1 | 75% → 92% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 20:53 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.10 | +0.29 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.16 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 12:29 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.11 | +0.35 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Bobby Brink R | 11:37 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.01 | −0.09 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.16 | −0.01 | |
| Daemon Hunt D | 10:06 | +0.23 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 27:30 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.08 | −0.20 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 13:44 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.05 | +0.29 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 13:24 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.13 | −0.25 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 12:16 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 21:34 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 14:32 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 20:28 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 19:09 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.08 | −0.06 | +0.07 | +0.04 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Danila Yurov R | 12:29 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.22 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Maksim Shabanov R | 15:09 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 12:44 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 12:54 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 20:20 | −0.25 | +0.08 | −0.19 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 21:28 | −0.41 | +0.06 | −0.22 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 59:14 | +1.18 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Josi D | 24:53 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.24 | +0.27 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Edstrom C | 10:50 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Wilsby D | 16:05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 13:20 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:29 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.13 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 15:23 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 12:15 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reid Schaefer L | 11:35 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.16 | −0.01 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 10:32 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 12:50 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Ufko D | 15:27 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 20:53 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 18:46 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 18:04 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Wood R | 17:22 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:20 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:31 | −0.31 | −0.07 | −0.26 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 17:25 | −0.44 | −0.01 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 58:19 | +0.07 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.