CBJ beat BUF 6–3. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Matthew Knies scored on the power play at 17:58 of the first, moving CBJ’s win probability from 54% to 71%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:21 |  BUF | Mattias Samuelsson from Noah Ostlund, Owen Power | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 12:51 |  CBJ | Cole Sillinger from Charlie Coyle, Denton Mateychuk | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 17:58 | CBJ | Matthew KniesPP from Charlie Coyle, Zach Werenski | 1–2 | 54% → 71% |
| P1 18:44 | CBJ | Adam Fantilli from Zach Werenski, Matthew Knies | 1–3 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 1:25 | BUF | Jack Quinn from Zach Benson, Noah Ostlund | 2–3 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 7:45 | CBJ | Matthew Knies from Emil Andrae, Kent Johnson | 2–4 | 73% → 88% |
| P2 13:14 | BUF | Konsta Helenius from Ryan McLeod, Owen Power | 3–4 | 11% → 25% |
| P3 14:21 | CBJ | Sean MonahanPP from Valeri Nichushkin, Dmitri Voronkov | 3–5 | 88% → 98% |
| P3 17:53 | CBJ | Mathieu OlivierEN from Charlie Coyle | 3–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Quinn R | 20:46 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.02 | +0.33 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.32 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Power D | 25:25 | 2 | +0.48 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.32 | +0.00 | |
| Konsta Helenius C | 15:09 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.08 | +0.37 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Noah Ostlund C | 16:42 | 2 | +0.14 | +0.02 | −0.25 | +0.36 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Zach Benson L | 18:34 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.14 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 18:21 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.06 | +0.44 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.32 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 16:41 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 14:27 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Metsa D | 12:54 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Louis Crevier D | 16:14 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 8:11 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 7:43 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 16:19 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jiri Kulich C | 8:45 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 14:58 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 19:06 | −0.20 | +0.10 | −0.19 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:58 | −0.34 | −0.07 | −0.17 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 19:46 | −0.39 | +0.11 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 59:08 | −2.21 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Knies L | 16:06 | 2 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.07 | +0.60 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Adam Fantilli C | 17:28 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.00 | +0.35 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.12 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 15:31 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.07 | +0.35 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 19:04 | 3 | +0.31 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 15:45 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Andrae D | 15:37 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 28:46 | 2 | +0.15 | +0.10 | −0.14 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 17:44 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 10:44 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Garland R | 12:09 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 7:05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denton Mateychuk D | 27:28 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 12:11 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 15:21 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.28 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.32 | +0.02 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 20:15 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 9:21 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 14:53 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 14:32 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.03 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 60:00 | −0.48 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.