TOR beat NYI 2–1. Expected goals were close to even (NYI 2.7, TOR 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Colton Sissons scored at 7:14 of the first, moving TOR’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Anthony Stolarz saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:14 |  TOR | Colton Sissons from Nick Paul, Easton Cowan | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 11:55 | TOR | Easton CowanPP from Jack Roslovic, Morgan Rielly | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P3 14:09 | NYI | Emil HeinemanSH from Bo Horvat | 1–2 | 2% → 12% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emil Heineman L | 13:26 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.01 | +0.81 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 17:14 | +0.16 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.11 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 9:29 | +0.14 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.11 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 19:51 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 20:17 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 16:27 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calum Ritchie C | 16:03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.11 | −0.02 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 15:06 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 13:50 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 10:06 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matthew Schaefer D | 27:45 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 22:31 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.11 | −0.03 | |
| Alexander Romanov D | 17:09 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 17:39 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 14:27 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 18:35 | −0.29 | +0.03 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Eklund R | 11:58 | −0.50 | −0.03 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.02 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 12:17 | −0.63 | +0.07 | −0.71 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 57:56 | +0.83 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Easton Cowan R | 13:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.11 | +0.65 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Colton Sissons C | 11:22 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.10 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Bo Groulx C | 9:49 | +0.11 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.11 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 14:39 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.11 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 20:39 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 16:05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 14:53 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.12 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Teddy Blueger C | 12:32 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 20:19 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.11 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 20:04 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 19:49 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gavin McKenna L | 15:32 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 15:30 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 15:43 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| William Nylander R | 17:29 | −0.33 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 16:58 | −0.41 | −0.26 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 20:36 | −0.46 | −0.06 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 18:16 | −0.58 | −0.02 | −0.45 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 58:22 | +1.61 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.