COL beat LAK 8–4. Expected goals were close to even (LAK 2.8, COL 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Parker Kelly scored at 17:58 of the first, moving COL’s win probability from 52% to 71%. Darcy Kuemper allowed 4.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:33 |  COL | Brock NelsonPP from Jaden Schwartz, Nazem Kadri | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 15:14 |  LAK | Brian Dumoulin from Alex Laferriere, Alex Turcotte | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P1 17:58 | COL | Parker Kelly from Josh Manson | 1–2 | 52% → 71% |
| P2 0:23 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonPP from Nazem Kadri, Cale Makar | 1–3 | 76% → 86% |
| P2 1:28 | LAK | Joel ArmiaSH from Erik Haula, Cody Ceci | 2–3 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 8:33 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Martin Necas, Brent Burns | 2–4 | 73% → 88% |
| P2 16:01 | COL | Nicolas Roy from Jaden Schwartz, Parker Kelly | 2–5 | 90% → 98% |
| P2 17:50 | LAK | Trevor MooreSH from Mikey Anderson | 3–5 | 2% → 9% |
| P2 18:34 | COL | Artturi LehkonenPP from Brock Nelson, Devon Toews | 3–6 | 92% → 98% |
| P3 11:51 | LAK | Artemi PanarinPP from Drew Doughty, Alex Laferriere | 4–6 | 0% → 3% |
| P3 14:03 | COL | Gabriel Landeskog from Cale Makar | 4–7 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 15:06 | COL | Artturi LehkonenPP from Brock Nelson, Devon Toews | 4–8 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin L | 20:16 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.76 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 16:30 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.08 | +0.83 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Armia R | 12:55 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Moore L | 14:56 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.06 | +0.66 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandt Clarke D | 18:57 | +0.31 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.22 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 17:59 | +0.20 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.11 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 19:24 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikey Anderson D | 19:21 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Helenius C | 6:59 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Quinton Byfield R | 18:59 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.12 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 15:34 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Laferriere R | 15:31 | 2 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Laughton C | 15:07 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Turcotte C | 15:35 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.11 | +0.08 | |
| Andre Lee L | 7:56 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 22:41 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.11 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 15:26 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.06 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 19:23 | −0.38 | −0.02 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 59:25 | −4.60 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 19:27 | 2 | +1.32 | +0.06 | +1.24 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 17:44 | 2 | +1.17 | −0.03 | +1.08 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.11 | −0.03 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 17:52 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.03 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Parker Kelly C | 12:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.03 | +0.79 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Nicolas Roy C | 12:12 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.03 | +0.59 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.11 | −0.02 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 19:14 | 1 | 2 | +0.70 | −0.00 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 |
| Sam Malinski D | 14:27 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 19:44 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 15:23 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 14:31 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 17:57 | 2 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cale Makar D | 18:14 | 2 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 20:04 | 2 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.11 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Juulsen D | 11:15 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 15:28 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 12:49 | 2 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| T.J. Hughes R | 13:35 | −0.34 | −0.11 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 19:11 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.02 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 60:00 | −1.28 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.