VAN beat EDM 6–5 in overtime. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Paul Cotter scored at 1:59 of overtime, moving VAN’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Tristan Jarry allowed 3.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:51 |  VAN | Paul CotterSH unassisted | 1–0 | 46% → 63% |
| P1 16:26 |  EDM | Evan Bouchard unassisted | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 2:07 | VAN | Marco Rossi from Liam Ohgren, Filip Hronek | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 14:34 | EDM | Evan Bouchard from Connor McDavid, Alex Formenton | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 1:10 | VAN | Jonathan Lekkerimäki from Jake DeBrusk, Jamie Oleksiak | 3–2 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 2:55 | VAN | Max Sasson from Drew O'Connor, Linus Karlsson | 4–2 | 74% → 91% |
| P3 5:15 | VAN | Elias PetterssonPP from Filip Hronek, Brock Boeser | 5–2 | 93% → 99% |
| P3 8:56 | EDM | Vasily Podkolzin from Evan Bouchard, Ryan Shea | 5–3 | 1% → 5% |
| P3 9:20 | EDM | Evan Bouchard from Connor McDavid | 5–4 | 5% → 21% |
| P3 19:17 | EDM | Vasily PodkolzinPP from Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard | 5–5 | 5% → 51% |
| OT 1:59 | VAN | Paul Cotter from Max Sasson | 6–5 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Cotter C | 11:51 | 2 | +1.70 | +0.21 | +1.52 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Max Sasson C | 16:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.15 | +0.76 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.06 |
| Jonathan Lekkerimäki R | 12:36 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.15 | +0.91 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Rossi C | 15:01 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.04 | +0.74 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 19:23 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.18 | +0.79 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Liam Ohgren L | 17:29 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 10:54 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arshdeep Bains L | 10:52 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 14:51 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 25:08 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 14:25 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Willander D | 20:40 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 15:35 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson D | 16:01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Zeev Buium D | 22:46 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Linus Karlsson C | 13:38 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 23:38 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.31 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 17:40 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.14 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 61:43 | −0.80 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Bouchard D | 25:41 | 3 | 2 | +2.51 | +0.13 | +2.39 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 18:20 | 2 | +0.97 | +0.18 | +0.83 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 22:51 | 2 | +0.18 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 20:56 | +0.11 | +0.14 | −0.13 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Isaac Howard L | 11:06 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 16:25 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Michaels R | 8:22 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 14:57 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 18:29 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 13:03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Dach C | 14:49 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Formenton L | 15:09 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.08 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | |
| Trent Frederic C | 9:21 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Max Jones L | 12:18 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 22:41 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 21:15 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.11 | −0.64 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 20:33 | −0.47 | −0.15 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 17:55 | −0.50 | −0.06 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 61:33 | −3.68 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.