MTL beat TOR 3–2. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Zachary Bolduc scored at 4:52 of the second, moving MTL’s win probability from 47% to 67%. Jakub Dobes saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:48 | TOR | William Nylander from Morgan Rielly, Kirill Marchenko | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 10:53 |  MTL | Josh Anderson from Alexandre Carrier, Kirby Dach | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 4:52 | MTL | Zachary Bolduc from Mike Matheson, Josh Anderson | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P3 13:12 | MTL | Alexandre Carrier unassisted | 3–1 | 84% → 97% |
| P3 15:46 | TOR | William Nylander from Easton Cowan, John Tavares | 3–2 | 1% → 12% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Carrier D | 21:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.08 | +0.81 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Josh Anderson R | 12:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.22 | +0.58 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 11:04 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.10 | +0.57 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 15:37 | +0.10 | +0.07 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 11:02 | +0.06 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 11:07 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 24:07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 14:50 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.03 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 14:21 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 12:20 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 16:11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 25:07 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Texier L | 12:13 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Demidov R | 15:11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 21:56 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 18:43 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 15:55 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 17:53 | −0.30 | −0.06 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 59:36 | +1.19 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander R | 18:55 | 2 | +1.35 | −0.03 | +1.40 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 22:34 | +0.09 | +0.23 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 14:58 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | ||
| Easton Cowan R | 15:58 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack MacEwen C | 5:25 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 9:04 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 18:39 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 9:46 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 11:38 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 21:30 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 18:14 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 19:05 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 20:08 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.28 | −0.47 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 18:07 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 15:32 | −0.20 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 23:47 | −0.38 | +0.08 | −0.47 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gavin McKenna L | 15:19 | −0.43 | −0.24 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 16:36 | 1 | −0.62 | +0.07 | −0.66 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 58:45 | −0.96 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.