Tonight: 3 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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2026-09-29 ·

1 – 0Final/OT

FLA beat CAR 1–0 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (FLA 2.2, CAR 2.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Gustav Forsling scored at 4:55 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jacob Markstrom saved 2.1 goals above expected.

Shots on goal
20 – 15
Expected goals
2.2 – 2.1
xG share
FLA 51%
Model before the game
CAR 58%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

FLA goalCAR goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

FLACAR

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

FLA
64:55 TOI
GSAx +2.12
+2.12
CAR
Brandon Bussi
64:55 TOI
GSAx +0.92
+0.99
FLA
1 G, 0 A · 22:40 TOI
On-ice −0.20 · Finishing +0.82 · Penalties −0.06
+0.54

Rough nights

FLA
0 G, 0 A · 19:02 TOI
On-ice −0.11 · Finishing −0.40
−0.52
CAR
0 G, 0 A · 20:56 TOI
On-ice +0.16 · Finishing −0.53 · Penalties −0.12
−0.44
CAR
0 G, 0 A · 16:21 TOI
Finishing −0.36 · Penalties −0.06
−0.38

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalFLA–CARWin prob.
OT 4:55 FLAGustav Forsling
from Carter Verhaeghe
1–048% → 100%

Every player

Show both lineups

FLA

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Gustav Forsling D22:401+0.54−0.20+0.82+0.00−0.01−0.06+0.00
Sandis Vilmanis L11:23+0.14+0.10+0.04−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.01
Carter Verhaeghe C18:581+0.12+0.19−0.06−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.01
Radko Gudas D10:45+0.06+0.09−0.04+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Lars Eller C11:34+0.02−0.01+0.02−0.01+0.00+0.06−0.05
Niko Mikkola D21:32+0.01+0.09−0.07−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Dmitry Kulikov D11:46+0.01+0.11−0.04−0.01+0.00−0.06+0.00
Aaron Ekblad D20:17−0.02+0.01−0.04+0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00
Bokondji Imama L6:03−0.03+0.00+0.04−0.01+0.00−0.06+0.00
Garnet Hathaway R9:37−0.05−0.02+0.04−0.01+0.01−0.06+0.00
Sam Reinhart C20:57−0.08−0.10+0.03−0.02+0.00+0.06−0.05
Brady Tkachuk L16:33−0.13+0.08−0.17+0.00+0.00−0.06+0.02
Sam Bennett C19:08−0.13−0.02−0.16−0.01+0.00+0.06+0.00
Aleksander Barkov C20:32−0.14−0.05−0.11+0.02+0.01+0.00+0.00
Seth Jones D28:59−0.18−0.02−0.13−0.03+0.00+0.00+0.00
Matthew Tkachuk L19:01−0.19−0.06−0.20+0.01+0.00+0.06+0.00
Eetu Luostarinen C13:58−0.26−0.05−0.19−0.01+0.01+0.00−0.02
Anton Lundell C19:02−0.52−0.11−0.40−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Jacob Markstrom G64:55+2.12

CAR

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
William Carrier L6:46+0.06−0.04+0.04−0.01+0.00+0.06+0.00
Mark Jankowski L13:13+0.05−0.00+0.04−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.02
Jordan Staal C17:17+0.05+0.01+0.04−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.02
Nicolas Deslauriers L5:01+0.04+0.01+0.04−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jordan Martinook L13:50−0.00−0.03+0.04−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Jalen Chatfield D19:12−0.01+0.04−0.04−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Eric Robinson L13:00−0.01−0.04+0.04−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Logan Stankoven C19:54−0.06−0.09+0.04−0.00−0.02+0.00+0.02
Sean Walker D19:10−0.06+0.06−0.06−0.00−0.00−0.06+0.00
K'Andre Miller D25:15−0.06+0.05−0.04−0.00−0.01−0.06+0.00
Jaccob Slavin D22:32−0.08−0.01−0.09+0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00
Shayne Gostisbehere D19:09−0.09−0.03−0.19+0.02−0.01+0.12+0.00
Jackson Blake R21:38−0.15+0.01−0.23+0.00−0.00+0.06+0.00
Nikolaj Ehlers L19:24−0.17+0.11−0.28−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Charles Alexis Legault D12:40−0.18−0.14−0.04−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Taylor Hall L15:27−0.30−0.10−0.21+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Andrei Svechnikov R16:21−0.38+0.02−0.36+0.02−0.00−0.06+0.00
Sebastian Aho C20:56−0.44+0.16−0.53+0.03−0.01−0.12+0.04
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Brandon Bussi G64:55+0.99

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.