FLA beat CAR 1–0 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (FLA 2.2, CAR 2.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Gustav Forsling scored at 4:55 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jacob Markstrom saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OT 4:55 |  FLA | Gustav Forsling from Carter Verhaeghe | 1–0 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustav Forsling D | 22:40 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.20 | +0.82 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | |
| Sandis Vilmanis L | 11:23 | +0.14 | +0.10 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 18:58 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.19 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 10:45 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 11:34 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.05 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 21:32 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 11:46 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 20:17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bokondji Imama L | 6:03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 9:37 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 20:57 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.05 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 16:33 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.02 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 19:08 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 20:32 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 28:59 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 19:01 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 13:58 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 19:02 | −0.52 | −0.11 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 64:55 | +2.12 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Carrier L | 6:46 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 13:13 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 17:17 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 5:01 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 13:50 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 19:12 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 13:00 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 19:54 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 19:10 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 25:15 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:32 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 19:09 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.12 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 21:38 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 19:24 | −0.17 | +0.11 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charles Alexis Legault D | 12:40 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 15:27 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 16:21 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.36 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:56 | −0.44 | +0.16 | −0.53 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi G | 64:55 | +0.99 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.